Air Force at New Mexico - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (6:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -11.5 (46.0)
Air Force 38 - New Mexico: 10 (Mountain West)

Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (32 - 18 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNM is playing their 5th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -10.5 (SP+ AFA -26)
Projected Score: AFA: 28 - UNM: 18 (46)
AFA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
AFA Travel: 289 miles

Lobos (3 - 9) (1 - 11 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (4 - 6)
Avg Score : 12 - 28 (18 - 30 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
UNM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Air Force vs Lafayette	-40.5	49.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Air Force at Navy	-6.0	40.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	54.0	L 45 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Air Force vs Florida Atlantic	-3.5	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Air Force at New Mexico	-11.5	46.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	46.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Air Force at Boise State	+3.0	52.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	-3.0	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Air Force vs Army	-2.5	37.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/13	Air Force at Colorado State	-3.0	45.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/19	Air Force at Nevada	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Air Force vs UNLV	-18.5	49.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/28	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

New Mexico's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	New Mexico vs Houston Christian	-25.5	66.0	W 27 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-19.5	55.5	W 34 - 25	O	N
Sat 9/18	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+30.5	49.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/25	New Mexico at UTEP	-2.5	53.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	New Mexico vs Air Force	+11.5	46.0	L 10 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/9	New Mexico at San Diego State	+19.5	42.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/16	New Mexico vs Colorado State	+13.0	44.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/23	New Mexico at Wyoming	+20.0	41.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	New Mexico vs UNLV	-1.5	45.0	L 17 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/13	New Mexico at Fresno State	+24.0	51.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/20	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	48.0	L 0 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/26	New Mexico vs Utah State	+17.0	48.0	L 10 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.28	45%	31	46%	3.41	328	41%	96	4.32	.18	38%	19.8	36%	40%	3.64	38.8	0.8	1.3
UNM	-.08	28%	12.2	31%	2.25	120	25%	114	2.15	.22	42%	28.4	45%	40%	3.92	57.1	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	31	32.2	45.5%	4.32	0.8	22	424	328	96	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
UNM Defense	12	28.4	30.3	42.4%	3.92	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	45%	40%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	19.8	18	37.6%	3.64	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	40%	20%	.18
UNM Offense	12	12.2	17.5	28.4%	2.15	1.7	14	234	120	114	3.1	59%	41%	31%	25%	21%	-.08

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:37	21.8	45%	78%	4.2	38.8	0.8	1.3	5.2	2.8	0	30.2
New Mexico	12	29:51	13.8	25%	33%	6.9	57.1	1.7	1.2	5.2	2.1	1	25.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85%	46%	64.3	328.2	5.1	44	.25	3.41	80%	7%	1.03
UNM Defense	12	53%	45%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.05	69%	10%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.84	81%	13%	1.18
UNM Offense	12	59%	31%	38.8	119.5	3.1	5	-.08	2.25	57%	18%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14%	41%	4.2	8.7	95.5	11	22.6	8	4	.51	2.3	27%	34%	.51	2%	2.2
UNM Defense	12	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.8	33%	29%	.35	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.23	1.6	38%	31%	.37	7%	2.1
UNM Offense	12	41%	25%	11.9	21.7	114.1	5.3	9.6	10	8	-.03	1.6	37%	15%	-.02	4%	2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: New Mexico: -6.8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 7.4 New Mexico: -18.6

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -6.8 NR
New Mexico's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
New Mexico's 2021 Expected Record: -
New Mexico's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #121
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 11.6 #131
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 28
New Mexico 18

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 25
New Mexico 18

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 31
New Mexico 17

Total Points: 48

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 12.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.5
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

New Mexico's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 1 - 11 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Air Force	3	New Mexico	20	New Mexico -3.5	New Mexico	53.5	Under
2024	10/12	New Mexico	52	Air Force	37	New Mexico -7	New Mexico	56.0	Over
2022	11/12	Air Force	35	New Mexico	3	Air Force -21	Air Force	37.5	Over
2021	10/02	New Mexico	10	Air Force	38	Air Force -11.5	Air Force	46.0	Over
2020	11/20	Air Force	28	New Mexico	0	Air Force -9.5	Air Force	56.5	Under
2019	11/23	New Mexico	22	Air Force	44	Air Force -24	New Mexico	56.5	Over
2018	11/10	Air Force	42	New Mexico	24	Air Force -14	Air Force	55.0	Over
2017	09/30	New Mexico	56	Air Force	38	Air Force -3	New Mexico	50.5	Over
2016	10/15	Air Force	40	New Mexico	45	Air Force -15	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2015	11/28	New Mexico	47	Air Force	35	Air Force -10.5	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2014	10/18	Air Force	35	New Mexico	31	Air Force -12	New Mexico	0
2013	11/08	New Mexico	45	Air Force	37	New Mexico -1.5	New Mexico	0
2012	10/20	Air Force	28	New Mexico	23
2011	10/29	New Mexico	0	Air Force	42
2010	11/13	Air Force	48	New Mexico	23
2009	09/19	New Mexico	13	Air Force	37
2008	10/23	Air Force	23	New Mexico	10
2007	10/25	New Mexico	34	Air Force	31
2006	09/30	Air Force	24	New Mexico	7
2005	11/19	New Mexico	24	Air Force	42
2004	10/09	Air Force	28	New Mexico	23
2003	11/15	New Mexico	24	Air Force	12
2002	09/07	Air Force	38	New Mexico	31
2001	10/27	New Mexico	52	Air Force	33
2000	10/20	Air Force	23	New Mexico	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico	10	8	8 Overs
Air Force	15	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 8	8 - 4	5 - 2	3 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 17	4 - 8	2 - 3	2 - 5

(#) AFA at (#) UNM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	UNM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#121
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#127
OffenseOff	#2	#132
DefenseDef	#36	#111
Spec TeamsST	#66	#110
TalentTal	#139	#112
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

New Mexico Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#111
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#95
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#27	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#66
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#111	#82
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#132	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#131	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#136	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#126	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#86	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Poor G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in University Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 71° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Air Force 11.5 (46.0)
Air Force won at New Mexico this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Air Force last year (52-37)
Air Force beat New Mexico in 2022 (35-3)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNM's OC Drew Mehringer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Rocky Long (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD