Air Force at Navy - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 11th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -6 (40.0)
Air Force 23 - Navy: 3

Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (32 - 18 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -5.5 (SP+ AFA -16)
Projected Score: AFA: 28 - NAVY: 14 (42)
AFA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 1516 miles, 2 hrs behind

Midshipmen (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (101 - 69)
Avg Score : 20 - 28 (21 - 33 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Air Force vs Lafayette	-40.5	49.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Air Force at Navy	-6.0	40.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	54.0	L 45 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Air Force vs Florida Atlantic	-3.5	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Air Force at New Mexico	-11.5	46.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	46.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Air Force at Boise State	+3.0	52.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	-3.0	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Air Force vs Army	-2.5	37.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/13	Air Force at Colorado State	-3.0	45.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/19	Air Force at Nevada	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Air Force vs UNLV	-18.5	49.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/28	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Navy's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Navy vs Marshall	+3.5	46.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/11	Navy vs Air Force	+6.0	40.0	L 3 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/25	Navy at Houston	+20.0	47.0	L 20 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Navy vs UCF	+15.0	52.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Navy vs SMU	+13.5	57.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Thu 10/14	Navy at Memphis	+11.0	55.5	L 17 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/23	Navy vs Cincinnati	+28.5	49.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Fri 10/29	Navy at Tulsa	+11.0	46.0	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Navy at Notre Dame	+21.0	47.5	L 6 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Navy vs East Carolina	+3.5	46.0	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Navy at Temple	-13.5	42.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/11	Navy at Army	-7.0	35.5	W 17 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.28	45%	31	46%	3.41	328	41%	96	4.32	.18	38%	19.8	36%	40%	3.64	38.8	0.8	1.3
NAVY	.12	37%	20.1	38%	2.89	226	27%	57	3.87	.21	42%	28.3	41%	44%	3.87	35.2	0.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)		46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)		46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	31	32.2	45.5%	4.32	0.8	22	424	328	96	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
NAVY Defense	12	28.3	33	42.4%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	41%	44%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	19.8	18	37.6%	3.64	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	40%	20%	.18
NAVY Offense	12	20.1	20.5	36.6%	3.87	0.7	17	283	226	57	3.9	84%	15%	38%	27%	14%	.12

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:37	21.8	45%	78%	4.2	38.8	0.8	1.3	5.2	2.8	0	30.2
Navy	12	34:47	16.7	37%	69%	4.4	35.2	0.7	1.3	5.1	1.3	2	30.5

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85%	46%	64.3	328.2	5.1	44	.25	3.41	80%	7%	1.03
NAVY Defense	12	54%	41%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.68	71%	11%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.84	81%	13%	1.18
NAVY Offense	12	84%	38%	58.1	226	3.9	19	.15	2.89	78%	13%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14%	41%	4.2	8.7	95.5	11	22.6	8	4	.51	2.3	27%	34%	.51	2%	2.2
NAVY Defense	12	46%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.32	1.6	32%	34%	.44	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.23	1.6	38%	31%	.37	7%	2.1
NAVY Offense	12	15%	27%	4	8.1	56.8	7	14.2	6	3	-.03	1.8	30%	23%	.13	1%	1.9

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Navy: -1.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 7.4 Navy: -8.5

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -1.75 NR
Navy's Offense Rating: NR
Navy's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #141
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Navy's 2021 Expected Record: -
Navy's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #103
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #116
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 28
Navy 14

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 24
Navy 9

Total Points: 33

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 31
Navy 20

Total Points: 51

Navy Scoring
Offense: 20.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.5
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Navy's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Navy	34	Air Force	31	Navy -13.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2024	10/05	Air Force	7	Navy	34	Navy -10	Navy	37.0	Over
2023	10/21	Navy	6	Air Force	17	Air Force -11	NA	34.0	Under
2022	10/01	Air Force	13	Navy	10	Air Force -14	Navy	38.0	Under
2021	09/11	Navy	3	Air Force	23	Air Force -6	Air Force	40.0	Under
2020	10/03	Air Force	40	Navy	7	Navy -6.5	Air Force	46.5	Over
2019	10/05	Navy	34	Air Force	25	Air Force -3	Navy	46.5	Over
2018	10/06	Air Force	35	Navy	7	Navy -2.5	Air Force	47.0	Under
2017	10/07	Navy	48	Air Force	45	Navy -8.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Air Force	28	Navy	14	Air Force -10.5	Air Force	50.5	Under
2015	10/03	Navy	33	Air Force	11	Navy -6	Navy	49.5	Under
2014	10/04	Air Force	30	Navy	21	Navy -4	Air Force	0
2013	10/05	Navy	28	Air Force	10	Navy -11	Navy	0
2012	10/06	Air Force	21	Navy	28
2011	10/01	Navy	34	Air Force	35
2010	10/02	Air Force	14	Navy	6
2009	10/03	Navy	16	Air Force	13
2008	10/04	Air Force	27	Navy	33
2007	09/29	Navy	31	Air Force	20
2006	10/07	Air Force	17	Navy	24
2005	10/08	Navy	27	Air Force	24
2004	09/30	Air Force	21	Navy	24
2003	10/04	Navy	28	Air Force	25
2002	10/05	Air Force	48	Navy	7
2001	10/06	Navy	18	Air Force	24
2000	10/06	Air Force	27	Navy	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	14	5	5 Overs
Air Force	12	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 9	7 - 5	3 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 17	5 - 7	2 - 4	3 - 3

(#) AFA at (#) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#103
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#115
OffenseOff	#2	#93
DefenseDef	#36	#125
Spec TeamsST	#66	#39
TalentTal	#139	#141
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Navy Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#125
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#27	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#111	#136
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Navy on Offense


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#116	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Navy Run Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#125	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Navy Pass Game


CategoryCat	NAVY Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#136	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Air Force 6.0 (40.0)
Air Force won at Navy this year (23-3)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Air Force last year (34-7)
Air Force beat Navy in 2023 (17-6)
Air Force beat Navy in 2022 (13-10)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NAVY's OC Vacant (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC Brian Newberry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD