Louisville at NC State - 2021 Matchup Preview

(#19)Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, October 30th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -6 (57.0)
NC State 28 - Louisville: 13 (ACC)

Cardinals (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (14 - 13)
Avg Score : 32 - 27 (35 - 28 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ NCST -8)
Projected Score: LOU: 27 - NCST: 30 (57)
NCST Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
LOU Travel: 422 miles

Wolfpack (9 - 3) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (57 - 47)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (36 - 16 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Louisville vs Ole Miss	+9.0	74.5	L 24 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/11	Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky	-30.0	62.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/17	Louisville vs UCF	+7.0	67.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Louisville at Florida State	+1.5	61.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Louisville at Wake Forest	+7.0	64.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-2.5	69.5	L 33 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-4.0	57.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Louisville at NC State	+6.0	57.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/6	Louisville vs Clemson	+3.5	46.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/13	Louisville vs Syracuse	-3.0	55.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/18	Louisville at Duke	-20.0	60.0	W 62 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Louisville vs Kentucky	-3.0	58.0	L 21 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/28	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

NC State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	NC State vs South Florida	-20.0	58.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	NC State at Mississippi State	-1.5	55.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/18	NC State vs Furman	-27.5	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/25	NC State vs Clemson	+10.5	46.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/2	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-18.5	56.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	NC State at Boston College	-3.0	51.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	NC State at Miami	-3.5	54.5	L 30 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/30	NC State vs Louisville	-6.0	57.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	NC State at Florida State	-3.0	55.0	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	NC State at Wake Forest	+1.0	65.0	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/20	NC State vs Syracuse	-11.0	49.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Fri 11/26	NC State vs North Carolina	-6.5	62.0	W 34 - 30	O	N
Tue 12/28	NC State vs UCLA	-2.0	60.0

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	.32	44%	31.6	43%	3.27	210	45%	236	4.45	.24	42%	27.3	46%	40%	4.21	54.9	1	1.3
NCST	.24	41%	33.1	42%	3.28	126	41%	288	4.2	.08	34%	19.7	35%	34%	3.6	64.5	0.9	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	31.6	35	44.1%	4.45	1	21	446	210	236	5.4	56%	44%	43%	45%	14%	.32
NCST Defense	12	19.7	16.4	33.8%	3.6	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	35%	34%	19%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	27.3	27.5	42.4%	4.21	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	46%	40%	17%	.24
NCST Offense	12	33.1	36.3	41.3%	4.2	0.9	21	415	126	288	4.1	40%	59%	42%	41%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	30:32	21.1	40%	52%	6.2	54.9	1	1.3	6.2	2.5	3	28.6
NC State	12	31:15	21.3	40%	42%	7.4	64.5	0.9	1.4	6.6	2.8	4	30.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	56%	43%	38.8	209.8	5.4	29	.25	3.27	68%	9%	1.22
NCST Defense	12	44%	35%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.79	50%	11%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	48%	46%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.27	77%	10%	1.06
NCST Offense	12	40%	42%	31	126.2	4.1	11	.11	3.28	81%	8%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	44%	45%	17	28	236.5	8.5	13.9	21	6	.4	1.7	30%	36%	.51	5%	2.1
NCST Defense	12	55%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.14	1.6	39%	26%	.21	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.25	1.7	33%	30%	.35	6%	2.1
NCST Offense	12	59%	41%	24	36.9	288.4	7.8	12	35	6	.35	1.7	33%	29%	.34	6%	2.3

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Louisville's 2021 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #52
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #24
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: NC State: 10.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 7.8 NC State: 16.1

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.55 NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
NC State's 2021 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.1 #14
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #39
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #14

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Louisville's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 30
Louisville 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 30
Louisville 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
NC State 31
Louisville 26

Total Points: 57

NC State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 19.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

NC State's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/29	NC State	10	Louisville	13	Louisville -3.5	NC State	56.5	Under
2022	11/19	Louisville	25	NC State	10	Louisville -4	Louisville	43.0	Under
2021	10/30	NC State	28	Louisville	13	NC State -6	NC State	57.0	Under
2019	11/16	NC State	20	Louisville	34	Louisville -4.5	Louisville	52.0	Over
2018	11/17	Louisville	10	NC State	52	NC State -16	NC State	65.0	Under
2017	10/05	NC State	39	Louisville	25	Louisville -3.5	NC State	67.0	Under
2016	10/22	Louisville	54	NC State	13	Louisville -20	Louisville	65.0	Over
2015	10/03	NC State	13	Louisville	20	NC State -5	Louisville	47.5	Under
2014	10/18	Louisville	30	NC State	18	Louisville -14.5	NC State	0
2011	12/27	NC State	31	Louisville	24
2007	09/29	NC State	10	Louisville	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	4	5	2 Overs
Louisville	7	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	5 - 4	3 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 6	4 - 5	2 - 2	2 - 3

(#) LOU at (#) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#52	#14
Perf GradeGrade	#39	#29
OffenseOff	#17	#41
DefenseDef	#96	#27
Spec TeamsST	#53	#55
TalentTal	#58	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Louisville Injury Report

NC State Injury Report

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#27
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#24	#14
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#48	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#11	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#64
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#101	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#48	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 54°

Rematch from Week 9
NC State -6.0 (57.0)
NC State won vs Louisville this year (28-13)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat NC State in 2023 (13-10)
Louisville beat NC State in 2022 (25-10)

LOU's OC Scott Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NCST's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD