Louisville at Florida State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, September 25th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -1.5 (61.0)
Louisville 31 - Florida State: 23 (ACC)

Cardinals (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (14 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU is playing their 4th straight game
LOU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ LOU -0)
Projected Score: LOU: 23 - FSU: 31 (54)
FSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LOU Travel: 543 miles

Seminoles (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LOU Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Louisville vs Ole Miss	+9.0	74.5	L 24 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/11	Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky	-30.0	62.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/17	Louisville vs UCF	+7.0	67.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Louisville at Florida State	+1.5	61.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Louisville at Wake Forest	+7.0	64.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-2.5	69.5	L 33 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-4.0	57.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Louisville at NC State	+6.0	57.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/6	Louisville vs Clemson	+3.5	46.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/13	Louisville vs Syracuse	-3.0	55.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/18	Louisville at Duke	-20.0	60.0	W 62 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Louisville vs Kentucky	-3.0	58.0	L 21 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/28	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Florida State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/5	Florida State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	53.5	L 38 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Florida State vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/18	Florida State at Wake Forest	+4.5	63.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/25	Florida State vs Louisville	-1.5	61.0	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/2	Florida State vs Syracuse	-5.5	50.0	W 33 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/9	Florida State at North Carolina	+17.5	64.5	W 35 - 25	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Florida State vs Massachusetts	-35.0	59.0	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Florida State at Clemson	+9.5	47.5	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/6	Florida State vs NC State	+3.0	55.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/13	Florida State vs Miami	+2.5	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Florida State at Boston College	+3.0	55.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Florida State at Florida	+4.0	58.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	.27	43%	29.9	43%	2.82	200	43%	244	3.75	.16	40%	21.2	41%	39%	3.58	52.5	2.2	1.1
FSU	.19	41%	33	50%	3.27	199	32%	197	3.19	.26	48%	22	48%	48%	4.01	79.2	1.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	11	29.9	23	42.8%	3.75	2.2	21	444	200	244	5.2	54%	46%	43%	43%	19%	.27
FSU Defense	9	22	16.1	47.6%	4.01	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	48%	14%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	11	21.2	25.5	40.1%	3.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	41%	39%	17%	.16
FSU Offense	9	33	43.3	41.4%	3.19	1.9	21	395	199	197	5.1	52%	48%	50%	32%	19%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	11	31:28	20.8	45%	54%	6.3	52.5	2.2	1.1	5.6	1.9	0	26.8
Florida State	9	30:29	20.6	36%	54%	8.9	79.2	1.9	1.6	5.4	1.1	1	28.3

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	11	54%	43%	38.2	199.9	5.2	21	.25	2.82	72%	15%	1.31
FSU Defense	9	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.2	2.92	66%	10%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	11	57%	41%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.87	71%	11%	0.97
FSU Offense	9	52%	50%	39	198.8	5.1	19	.35	3.27	82%	12%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	11	46%	43%	18.4	28.6	244.2	8.5	13.3	20	12	.3	1.7	35%	37%	.54	4%	2.3
FSU Defense	9	47%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.34	1.6	28%	38%	.58	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	11	43%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.28	1.8	36%	32%	.38	7%	2.2
FSU Offense	9	48%	32%	17.8	32.6	196.7	6	11.1	10	13	.01	1.6	34%	29%	.33	8%	2.1

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Louisville's 2021 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #52
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #24
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: Florida State: 6.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 7.8 Florida State: 7.6

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 6.3 NR
Florida State's Offense Rating: NR
Florida State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Florida State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.6 #53
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #37

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 31
Louisville 23

Projected Total Points: 54

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/02	Florida State	16	Louisville	6	Florida State -3.5	Florida State	51.0	Under
2022	09/16	Louisville	31	Florida State	35	Florida State -2.5	Florida State	57.0	Over
2021	09/25	Florida State	23	Louisville	31	Florida State -1.5	Louisville	61.0	Under
2020	10/24	Louisville	48	Florida State	16	Louisville -5.0	Louisville	63.0	Over
2019	09/21	Florida State	35	Louisville	24	Florida State -6.5	Florida State	61.0	Under
2018	09/29	Louisville	24	Florida State	28	Florida State -4.5	Louisville	47.5	Over
2017	10/21	Florida State	28	Louisville	31	Florida State -7	Louisville	58.0	Over
2016	09/17	Louisville	63	Florida State	20	Florida State -4.5	Louisville	65.0	Over
2015	10/17	Florida State	41	Louisville	21	Florida State -9	Florida State	47.0	Over
2014	10/30	Louisville	31	Florida State	42	Florida State -8.5	Florida State	0
2002	09/26	Louisville	26	Florida State	20
2000	09/22	Florida State	31	Louisville	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	7	5	6 Overs
Louisville	5	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	6 - 4	4 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 7	4 - 6	2 - 2	2 - 4

(#) LOU at (#) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#52	#53
Perf GradeGrade	#39	#82
OffenseOff	#17	#99
DefenseDef	#96	#25
Spec TeamsST	#53	#110
TalentTal	#58	#20
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Louisville Injury Report

Florida State Injury Report

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#25
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#24	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#48	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#11	#43
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Florida State on Offense


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#58	#64
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida State Run Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#80	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#124	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

Florida State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FSU Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#42	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Florida State -1.5 (61.0)
Louisville won at Florida State this year (31-23)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Louisville in 2023 (16-6)

LOU's OC Scott Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FSU's OC Kenny Dillingham (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD