Air Force at Boise State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos

Saturday, October 16th 2021 (9:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -3 (52.0)
Air Force 24 - Boise State: 17 (Mountain West)

Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (32 - 18 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BSU is playing their 7th straight game
AFA is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -3.5 (SP+ BSU -2)
Projected Score: AFA: 28 - BSU: 23 (51)
BSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 669 miles

Broncos (7 - 5) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Andy Avalos (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (30 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Air Force vs Lafayette	-40.5	49.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Air Force at Navy	-6.0	40.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	54.0	L 45 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Air Force vs Florida Atlantic	-3.5	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Air Force at New Mexico	-11.5	46.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	46.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Air Force at Boise State	+3.0	52.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	-3.0	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Air Force vs Army	-2.5	37.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/13	Air Force at Colorado State	-3.0	45.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/19	Air Force at Nevada	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Air Force vs UNLV	-18.5	49.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/28	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Boise State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Boise State at UCF	+6.5	67.0	L 31 - 36	U	Y
Fri 9/10	Boise State vs UTEP	-25.0	56.0	W 54 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Boise State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	58.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/25	Boise State at Utah State	-9.5	69.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Boise State vs Nevada	-3.5	59.0	L 31 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/9	Boise State at BYU	+6.0	58.0	W 26 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Boise State vs Air Force	-3.0	52.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Boise State at Colorado State	-2.0	51.5	W 28 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Boise State at Fresno State	+4.0	61.5	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/12	Boise State vs Wyoming	-14.0	49.0	W 23 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/20	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	48.0	W 37 - 0	U	Y
Fri 11/26	Boise State at San Diego State	-3.0	44.0	L 16 - 27	U	N
Fri 12/31	Boise State vs Central Michigan	-7.5	55.5

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.28	45%	31	46%	3.41	328	41%	96	4.32	.18	38%	19.8	36%	40%	3.64	38.8	0.8	1.3
BSU	.19	43%	29.2	41%	2.75	122	44%	261	3.99	.13	38%	19	40%	37%	3.26	49.6	1.3	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1
BSU	#3 (.36)	48% (12)		49% (17)	3.22 (39)	234	48% (12)	204	4.83 (4)	#59 (.16)	38% (27)		39% (33)	37% (29)	3.33 (24)	39.8	0.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	31	32.2	45.5%	4.32	0.8	22	424	328	96	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28
BSU Defense	12	19	18.7	38.5%	3.26	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	37%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	19.8	18	37.6%	3.64	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	40%	20%	.18
BSU Offense	12	29.2	30.3	43%	3.99	1.3	22	383	122	261	3.2	47%	53%	41%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:37	21.8	45%	78%	4.2	38.8	0.8	1.3	5.2	2.8	0	30.2
Boise State	12	29:57	22	44%	38%	5	49.6	1.3	1.9	5.5	2.3	4	29.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	85%	46%	64.3	328.2	5.1	44	.25	3.41	80%	7%	1.03
BSU Defense	12	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.93	67%	11%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.84	81%	13%	1.18
BSU Offense	12	47%	41%	38.3	122.2	3.2	15	.05	2.75	69%	10%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	14%	41%	4.2	8.7	95.5	11	22.6	8	4	.51	2.3	27%	34%	.51	2%	2.2
BSU Defense	12	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.22	1.7	34%	26%	.22	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.23	1.6	38%	31%	.37	7%	2.1
BSU Offense	12	53%	44%	21.2	34.2	260.6	7.6	12.3	20	10	.31	1.5	32%	34%	.45	5%	2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Boise State: 7.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 7.4 Boise State: 9.4

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 7.2 NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Boise State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #41
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #69
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #23

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 28
Boise State 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 31
Boise State 20

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 25
Boise State 25

Total Points: 50

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.3
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Boise State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Air Force	37	Boise State	49	Boise State -10.5	Boise State	51.5	Over
2023	11/24	Boise State	27	Air Force	19	Boise State -6.5	Boise State	44.5	Over
2022	10/22	Air Force	14	Boise State	19	Air Force -2.5	Boise State	46.5	Under
2021	10/16	Boise State	17	Air Force	24	Boise State -3	Air Force	52.0	Under
2020	10/31	Air Force	30	Boise State	49	Boise State -10.5	Boise State	0
2019	09/20	Boise State	30	Air Force	19	Boise State -7.5	Boise State	53.0	Under
2018	10/27	Air Force	38	Boise State	48	Boise State -10	NA	58.0	Over
2017	11/18	Boise State	44	Air Force	19	Boise State -17.5	Boise State	60.5	Over
2016	11/25	Air Force	27	Boise State	20	Boise State -9	Air Force	63.5	Under
2015	11/20	Boise State	30	Air Force	37	Boise State -14.5	Air Force	55.0	Over
2014	09/27	Air Force	28	Boise State	14	Boise State -15	Air Force	0
2013	09/13	Boise State	42	Air Force	20	Boise State -24	Air Force	0
2011	10/22	Boise State	37	Air Force	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	9	6	5 Overs
Air Force	4	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 6	5 - 6	3 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 7	6 - 5	2 - 2	4 - 3

(#) AFA at (#) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	BSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#41
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#42
OffenseOff	#2	#77
DefenseDef	#36	#32
Spec TeamsST	#66	#66
TalentTal	#139	#70
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Boise State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#32
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#23
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#27	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#111	#112
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#77	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#69	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#61	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#109	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Boise State -3.0 (52.0)
Air Force won at Boise State this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Air Force in 2023 (27-19)
Boise State beat Air Force in 2022 (19-14)

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD