Virginia at Louisville - 2021 Matchup Preview

Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 9th 2021 (3:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -2.5 (69.5)
Virginia 34 - Louisville: 33 (ACC)

Cavaliers (6 - 6) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA 2nd straight Road Game
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
UVA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -3 (SP+ LOU -1)
Projected Score: UVA: 25 - LOU: 27 (52)
LOU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 394 miles

Cardinals (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (14 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Virginia vs William & Mary	-30.5	52.5	W 43 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Virginia vs Illinois	-10.5	57.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Virginia at North Carolina	+7.5	67.0	L 39 - 59	O	N
Fri 9/24	Virginia vs Wake Forest	-3.5	71.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Thu 9/30	Virginia at Miami	+3.5	63.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Virginia at Louisville	+2.5	69.5	W 34 - 33	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Virginia vs Duke	-10.5	69.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-6.5	66.0	W 48 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Virginia at BYU	+2.5	66.5	L 49 - 66	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13	Virginia vs Notre Dame	+7.5	62.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/20	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+12.5	69.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	63.5	L 24 - 29	U	N
Wed 12/29	Virginia vs SMU	-2.5	71.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

Louisville's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Louisville vs Ole Miss	+9.0	74.5	L 24 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/11	Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky	-30.0	62.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/17	Louisville vs UCF	+7.0	67.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Louisville at Florida State	+1.5	61.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Louisville at Wake Forest	+7.0	64.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-2.5	69.5	L 33 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-4.0	57.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Louisville at NC State	+6.0	57.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/6	Louisville vs Clemson	+3.5	46.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/13	Louisville vs Syracuse	-3.0	55.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/18	Louisville at Duke	-20.0	60.0	W 62 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Louisville vs Kentucky	-3.0	58.0	L 21 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/28	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	.19	44%	30.8	48%	3.42	163	40%	261	4.05	.2	41%	19.6	37%	44%	3.04	48.3	1.9	1.8
LOU	.27	43%	29.9	43%	2.82	200	43%	244	3.75	.16	40%	21.2	41%	39%	3.58	52.5	2.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	10	30.8	28.6	44%	4.05	1.9	24	423	163	261	4.5	46%	54%	48%	40%	14%	.19
LOU Defense	11	21.2	18.9	40.1%	3.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	41%	39%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	10	19.6	23.2	40.6%	3.04	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	44%	18%	.2
LOU Offense	11	29.9	33.8	42.8%	3.75	2.2	21	444	200	244	5.2	54%	46%	43%	43%	19%	.27

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	10	31:04	23.6	37%	64%	5.3	48.3	1.9	1.8	7.2	3.2	2	29.2
Louisville	11	31:28	20.8	45%	54%	6.3	52.5	2.2	1.1	5.6	1.9	0	26.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	10	46%	48%	36.6	162.9	4.5	16	.2	3.42	77%	7%	0.93
LOU Defense	11	57%	41%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.87	71%	11%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	10	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.6	76%	12%	0.92
LOU Offense	11	54%	43%	38.2	199.9	5.2	21	.25	2.82	72%	15%	1.31

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	10	54%	40%	22.1	37.9	260.5	6.9	11.8	22	14	.17	1.6	29%	31%	.33	8%	1.9
LOU Defense	11	43%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.28	1.8	36%	32%	.38	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	10	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.9	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.3
LOU Offense	11	46%	43%	18.4	28.6	244.2	8.5	13.3	20	12	.3	1.7	35%	37%	.54	4%	2.3

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Virginia's 2021 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: Louisville: 6.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 7.2 Louisville: 7.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 6.4 NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisville's 2021 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #52
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #24
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 27
Virginia 25

Projected Total Points: 52

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Louisville	27	Virginia	30	Louisville -6.5	Virginia	59.5	Under
2024	10/12	Virginia	20	Louisville	24	Louisville -7	Virginia	54.0	Under
2023	11/09	Louisville	31	Virginia	24	Louisville -20.5	Virginia	49.5	Over
2022	10/08	Virginia	17	Louisville	34	Virginia -1.5	Louisville	47.5	Over
2021	10/09	Louisville	33	Virginia	34	Louisville -2.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	11/14	Virginia	31	Louisville	17	Virginia -5.5	Virginia	64.5	Under
2019	10/26	Louisville	28	Virginia	21	Virginia -4.5	Louisville	51.0	Under
2018	09/22	Virginia	27	Louisville	3	Virginia -4.5	Virginia	51.5	Under
2017	11/11	Louisville	38	Virginia	21	Louisville -14	Louisville	66.5	Under
2016	10/29	Virginia	25	Louisville	32	Louisville -27	Virginia	69.5	Under
2015	11/14	Louisville	38	Virginia	31	Louisville -8.5	Virginia	48.0	Over
2014	09/13	Virginia	23	Louisville	21	Louisville -10	Virginia	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	7	3	3 Overs
Virginia	5	9	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	7 - 5	3 - 5	4 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 7	5 - 7	0 - 4	5 - 3

(#) UVA at (#) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#55	#52
Perf GradeGrade	#69	#39
OffenseOff	#19	#17
DefenseDef	#121	#96
Spec TeamsST	#63	#53
TalentTal	#53	#58
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Virginia Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#64
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#32	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#24	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#48	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#11	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Louisville -2.5 (69.5)
Virginia won at Louisville this year (34-33)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Louisville last year (30-27)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2024 (24-20)
Louisville beat Virginia in 2023 (31-24)

UVA's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LOU's OC Scott Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD