San Diego State at Air Force - 2021 Matchup Preview
San Diego State logo San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -3 (38.5)
San Diego State 20 - Air Force: 14  (Mountain West)

 
Aztecs (12 - 2) (7 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brady Hoke (7 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (24 - 14 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SDSU 2nd straight Road Game
AFA is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -2  (SP+ SDSU -1)
Projected Score: SDSU: 21 - AFA: 23 (44)
AFA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (33 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
San Diego State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 San Diego State vs New Mexico State-31.051.0W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/11 San Diego State at Arizona+1.546.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/18 San Diego State vs Utah+8.042.5W 33 - 31OY
Sat 9/25 San Diego State vs Towson-23.041.0W 48 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/9 San Diego State vs New Mexico-19.542.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 10/15 San Diego State at San José State-10.041.0W 19 - 13UN
Sat 10/23 San Diego State at Air Force+3.038.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/30 San Diego State vs Fresno State+2.043.5L 20 - 30ON
Sat 11/6 San Diego State at Hawai'i-7.045.0W 17 - 10UN
Sat 11/13 San Diego State vs Nevada-2.545.0W 23 - 21UN
Fri 11/19 San Diego State at UNLV-11.041.0W 28 - 20ON
Fri 11/26 San Diego State vs Boise State+3.044.0W 27 - 16UY
Sat 12/4 San Diego State vs Utah State-6.549.5L 13 - 46ON
Tue 12/21 San Diego State vs UTSA-3.048.0W 38 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Air Force vs Lafayette-40.549.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 9/11 Air Force at Navy-6.040.0W 23 - 3UY
Sat 9/18 Air Force vs Utah State-9.054.0L 45 - 49ON
Sat 9/25 Air Force vs Florida Atlantic-3.554.0W 31 - 7UY
Sat 10/2 Air Force at New Mexico-11.546.0W 38 - 10OY
Sat 10/9 Air Force vs Wyoming-5.546.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/16 Air Force at Boise State+3.052.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/23 Air Force vs San Diego State-3.038.5L 14 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6 Air Force vs Army-2.537.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 11/13 Air Force at Colorado State-3.045.0W 35 - 21OY
Fri 11/19 Air Force at Nevada-1.553.5W 41 - 39OY
Fri 11/26 Air Force vs UNLV-18.549.5W 48 - 14OY
Tue 12/28 Air Force vs Louisville-1.055.0W 31 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU.1540%27.440%317539%1683.57.0736%19.833%38%3.4667.911.9
AFA.2845%3146%3.4132841%964.32.1838%19.836%40%3.6438.80.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1427.424.439.7%3.571193431751684.356%43%40%39%15%.15
AFA Defense1319.819.737.6%3.641.3 - - - - - 51%48%36%40%20%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1419.814.235.8%3.461.9 - - - - - 39%61%33%38%20%.07
AFA Offense133132.845.5%4.320.822424328965.185%14%46%41%9%.28

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1432:0418.632%63%7.467.911.96.82.9530.5
Air Force1336:3721.845%78%4.238.80.81.35.22.8030.2
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1456%40%40.8174.94.326.17376%10%1.14
AFA Defense1351%36% - - - - .152.8481%13%1.18
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1439%33% - - - - -.062.6165%12%0.84
AFA Offense1385%46%64.3328.25.144.253.4180%7%1.03

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1443%39%14.925.8167.96.511.3165.171.433%28%.245%1.9
AFA Defense1348%40% - - - - - - 8.231.638%31%.377%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1461%38% - - - - - - 17.181.536%26%.198%1.9
AFA Offense1314%41%4.28.795.51122.684.512.327%34%.512%2.2

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
San Diego State's 2021 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #50
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #93
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.1  #12

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State:    Air Force: 6.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 8.3   Air Force: 7.4




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 6.2 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.2

San Diego State's 2021 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 23
San Diego State 21

Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 22
San Diego State 19

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 24
San Diego State 23

Total Points: 47
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30San Diego State20Air Force31Air Force -6.5Air Force43.5Over
202309/30Air Force49San Diego State10Air Force -10.5Air Force43.5Over
202211/26San Diego State3Air Force13Air Force -2Air Force43.5Under
202110/23Air Force14San Diego State20Air Force -3San Diego State38.5Under
201810/12San Diego State21Air Force17San Diego State -11Air Force43.5Under
201709/23Air Force24San Diego State28San Diego State -1.5San Diego State48.0Over
201512/05San Diego State27Air Force24San Diego State -3.5Air Force46.5Over
201411/21San Diego State30Air Force14San Diego State -2San Diego State0
201310/10Air Force20San Diego State27San Diego State -3.5San Diego State0
201211/10San Diego State28Air Force9
201110/13Air Force27San Diego State41
201010/16San Diego State27Air Force25
200909/26Air Force26San Diego State14
200810/11San Diego State10Air Force35
200711/17Air Force55San Diego State23
200610/21San Diego State19Air Force12
200509/10Air Force41San Diego State29
200411/13Air Force31San Diego State37
200311/22San Diego State24Air Force3
200109/29San Diego State21Air Force45
200011/17Air Force45San Diego State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force954 Overs
San Diego State1243 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 92 - 72 - 30 - 4
Road Teams9 - 127 - 24 - 03 - 2

(#) SDSU at (#) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #50 #54
Perf GradeGrade #34 #3
OffenseOff #54 #2
DefenseDef #21 #36
Spec TeamsST #18 #66
TalentTal #95 #139
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
San Diego State on Offense
CategoryCat
SDSU OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #54 #36
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #93 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
San Diego State Run Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #100 #81
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #8
San Diego State Pass Game
CategoryCat
SDSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #91 #56
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #16 #13
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Air Force on Offense
CategoryCatAFA OffSDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #2 #21
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #57 #12
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Air Force Run Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #27 #55
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #48
Air Force Pass Game
CategoryCatAFA OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #31 #13
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #111 #23
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 61° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Air Force -3.0 (38.5)
San Diego State won at Air Force this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San Diego State last year (31-20)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2023 (49-10)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2022 (13-3)

  
SDSU's OC Jeff Hecklinski (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD