South Alabama at Air Force - 2016 Matchup Preview

South Alabama Jaguars vs Air Force Falcons

Friday, December 30th 2016 (5:30 PM EST)
Air Force -14 (54.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 45 - South Alabama: 21

Jaguars (6 - 7) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (25 - 32 on Road)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -7 (SP+ AFA -14)
Projected Score: USA: 27 - AFA: 30 (57)
AFA Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
USA Travel: 1352 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Falcons (10 - 3) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
'16 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
USA Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	South Alabama at Mississippi State	+34.0	52.0	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/10	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	+11.5	57.5	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/17	South Alabama at Louisiana	+3.5	53.0	L 23 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/24	South Alabama vs Nicholls	-16.5
Sat 10/1	South Alabama vs San Diego State	+17.5	49.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	South Alabama at Arkansas State	+6.0	54.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Thu 10/20	South Alabama vs Troy	+9.0	49.0	L 21 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/29	South Alabama vs Georgia State	-3.5	47.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/5	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-13.5	49.5	L 35 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/19	South Alabama vs Presbyterian	-31.0
Sat 11/26	South Alabama at Idaho	+2.5	53.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/3	South Alabama vs New Mexico State	-12.0	57.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/30	South Alabama vs Air Force	+14.0	54.0	L 21 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule

Air Force's 2016 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Air Force vs Abilene Christian	-44.0
Sat 9/10	Air Force vs Georgia State	-22.5	52.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	Air Force at Utah State	-3.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Air Force vs Navy	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Air Force at Wyoming	-13.5	50.0	L 26 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/15	Air Force vs New Mexico	-15.0	53.5	L 40 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/22	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-17.5	58.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Fri 10/28	Air Force at Fresno State	-13.5	51.0	W 31 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/5	Air Force at Army	-3.0	46.5	W 31 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Air Force vs Colorado State	-6.0	54.0	W 49 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/19	Air Force at San José State	-11.0	54.5	W 41 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/25	Air Force vs Boise State	+9.0	63.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Fri 12/30	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2015)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	.07	40%	26.5	42%	2.78	161	36%	200	2.89	.19	44%	30.4	43%	42%	4.23	57.8	2.1	1.7
AFA	.25	47%	29.8	48%	3.2	319	40%	132	3.87	.18	37%	30.3	33%	38%	3.58	38	1.6	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2015

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	12	26.5	25.2	40.2%	2.89	2.1	18	360	161	200	4	54%	45%	42%	36%	2%	.07
AFA Defense	14	30.3	27.8	36.6%	3.58	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	33%	38%	2%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	12	30.4	32	43.5%	4.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	57%	42%	43%	42%	2%	.19
AFA Offense	14	29.8	27.5	46.9%	3.87	1.6	21	451	319	132	5.5	80%	18%	48%	40%	2%	.25

Additional Stats 2015

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	12	28:25	18.1	35%	44%	6.8	57.8	2.1	1.7	0	0	1	28.4
Air Force	14	32:20	21.4	43%	61%	3.8	38	1.6	1.3	0	0	2	29.1

Run Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	12	54%	42%	40.1	160.7	4	18	.06	2.78	75%	0%	0.87
AFA Defense	14	53%	33%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.38	71%	0%	1.31

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	12	57%	43%	-	-	-	-	.12	2.84	67%	0%	1.05
AFA Offense	14	80%	48%	58.3	319.1	5.5	45	.2	3.2	80%	0%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2016)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	12	45%	36%	15.3	29.3	199.5	6.8	13	15	16	.11	1.7	34%	32%	.19	2%	1.7
AFA Defense	14	46%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.33	1.9	38%	31%	.33	2%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	12	42%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.29	1.6	33%	32%	.38	2%	2.1
AFA Offense	14	18%	40%	6.2	12.1	131.9	10.9	21.2	15	12	.49	2.3	26%	33%	.37	2%	1.9

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
South Alabama's 2016 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #90
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #92

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: Air Force: 2.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -9.4 Air Force: 4.4

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 2.2 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2016 Talent Rating: #181
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2016 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2016 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4 #58
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #45
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #79

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

South Alabama's 2016 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 30
South Alabama 27

Projected Total Points: 57

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2016 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2016	12/30	Air Force	45	South Alabama	21	Air Force -14	Air Force	54.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	1	1	1 Overs
South Alabama	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

South Alabama Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2016	N/A	South Alabama vs Air Force	+14.0	54.0	L 21 - 45
2014	Camellia Bowl	South Alabama vs Bowling Green	-3.5	55.0	L 28 - 33

Air Force Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2016	N/A	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21
2015	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs California	+6.5		L 36 - 55
2014	Potato Bowl	Air Force vs Western Michigan	+2.5	59.0	W 38 - 24
2012	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs Rice			L 14 - 33
2011	Military Bowl	Air Force vs Toledo			L 41 - 42
2010	Independence Bowl	Air Force vs Georgia Tech			W 14 - 7

(#) USA at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USA	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#100	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#102	#181
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

South Alabama Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#79
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#45	#92
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'16 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Air Force -14.0 (54.0)
Air Force won vs South Alabama this year (45-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

USA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD