Air Force at Nevada - 2021 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Friday, November 19th 2021 (9:00 PM EST)
Air Force -1.5 (53.5)
Air Force 41 - Nevada: 39  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (32 - 18 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
NEV is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -0.5  (SP+ AFA -4)
Projected Score: AFA: 26 - NEV: 28 (54)
AFA Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
AFA Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (27 - 23)
Avg Score : 36 - 27 (43 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Air Force vs Lafayette-40.549.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 9/11 Air Force at Navy-6.040.0W 23 - 3UY
Sat 9/18 Air Force vs Utah State-9.054.0L 45 - 49ON
Sat 9/25 Air Force vs Florida Atlantic-3.554.0W 31 - 7UY
Sat 10/2 Air Force at New Mexico-11.546.0W 38 - 10OY
Sat 10/9 Air Force vs Wyoming-5.546.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/16 Air Force at Boise State+3.052.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/23 Air Force vs San Diego State-3.038.5L 14 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6 Air Force vs Army-2.537.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 11/13 Air Force at Colorado State-3.045.0W 35 - 21OY
Fri 11/19 Air Force at Nevada-1.553.5W 41 - 39OY
Fri 11/26 Air Force vs UNLV-18.549.5W 48 - 14OY
Tue 12/28 Air Force vs Louisville-1.055.0W 31 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Nevada's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Nevada at California+2.552.5W 22 - 17UY
Sat 9/11 Nevada vs Idaho State-35.056.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 9/18 Nevada at Kansas State-1.551.5L 17 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2 Nevada at Boise State+3.559.0W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/9 Nevada vs New Mexico State-28.564.5W 55 - 28ON
Sat 10/16 Nevada vs Hawai'i-14.061.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 10/23 Nevada at Fresno State+3.564.5L 32 - 34OY
Fri 10/29 Nevada vs UNLV-19.058.0W 51 - 20OY
Sat 11/6 Nevada vs San José State-11.555.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 11/13 Nevada at San Diego State+2.545.0L 21 - 23UY
Fri 11/19 Nevada vs Air Force+1.553.5L 39 - 41ON
Sat 11/27 Nevada at Colorado State-3.057.5W 52 - 10OY
Mon 12/27 Nevada vs Western Michigan+7.056.0L 24 - 52ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA.2845%3146%3.4132841%964.32.1838%19.836%40%3.6438.80.81.3
NEV.2743%35.740%2.777745%3474.01.2146%26.552%41%3.7555.10.82.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense133132.245.5%4.320.822424328965.185%14%46%41%9%.28
NEV Defense1326.523.346.2%3.752.7 - - - - - 50%49%52%41%18%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1319.81837.6%3.641.3 - - - - - 51%48%36%40%20%.18
NEV Offense1335.742.542.9%4.010.82242477347332%67%40%45%16%.27

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1336:3721.845%78%4.238.80.81.35.22.8030.2
Nevada1328:5222.241%57%6.555.10.82.76.13.2331.2
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1385%46%64.3328.25.144.253.4180%7%1.03
NEV Defense1350%52% - - - - .273.5682%11%1.01
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1351%36% - - - - .152.8481%13%1.18
NEV Offense1332%40%25.977.4313.072.7770%11%0.96

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1314%41%4.28.795.51122.684.512.327%34%.512%2.2
NEV Defense1349%41% - - - - - - 14.191.528%29%.227%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1348%40% - - - - - - 8.231.638%31%.377%2.1
NEV Offense1367%45%30.4443477.911.4389.391.632%34%.445%2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force:    Nevada: 4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 7.4   Nevada: 3.6




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: 4.3 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2021 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.6  #67
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.3  #54
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9  #68

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Nevada 28
Air Force 26

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 28
Air Force 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Nevada 29
Air Force 28

Total Points: 57
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

Nevada's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Nevada19Air Force22Nevada -3Air Force44.5Under
202209/23Air Force48Nevada20Air Force -24Air Force47.0Over
202111/19Nevada39Air Force41Air Force -1.5Air Force53.5Over
201809/29Air Force25Nevada28Air Force -3.5Nevada64.0Under
201710/20Nevada42Air Force45Air Force -6.5Nevada65.0Over
201411/15Air Force45Nevada38Nevada -2.5Air Force0
201309/28Nevada45Air Force42Nevada -7Air Force0
201210/26Air Force48Nevada31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada223 Overs
Air Force652 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 43 - 41 - 32 - 1
Road Teams4 - 44 - 31 - 23 - 1

(#) AFA at (#) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFANEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #54 #67
Perf GradeGrade #3 #58
OffenseOff #2 #58
DefenseDef #36 #74
Spec TeamsST #66 #42
TalentTal #139 #98
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Air Force on Offense
CategoryCat
AFA OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #2 #74
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #57 #68
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Air Force Run Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffNEV Def
Run GameRun #27 #120
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #58
Air Force Pass Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffNEV Def
Pass GamePass #31 #30
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #111 #38
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Nevada on Offense
CategoryCatNEV OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #36
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #54 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Nevada Run Game
CategoryCat
NEV OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #97 #81
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #72 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #8
Nevada Pass Game
CategoryCatNEV OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #10 #56
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #113 #13
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 51° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Air Force 1.5 (53.5)
Air Force won at Nevada this year (41-39)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Nevada last year (22-19)
Air Force beat Nevada in 2022 (48-20)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

NEV's OC Matt Mumme (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Brian Ward (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD