Utah State at Air Force - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 18th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -9 (54.0)
Utah State 49 - Air Force: 45 (Mountain West)

Aggies (11 - 3) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 24 (38 - 21 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 23 MPH
Our Line: -6 (SP+ AFA -7)
Projected Score: USU: 24 - AFA: 27 (51)
AFA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USU Travel: 413 miles

Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (33 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Utah State at Washington State	+17.5	66.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Fri 9/10	Utah State vs North Dakota	-6.5	53.5	W 48 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	54.0	W 49 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Utah State vs Boise State	+9.5	69.5	L 3 - 27	U	N
Fri 10/1	Utah State vs BYU	+9.0	66.0	L 20 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Utah State at UNLV	-7.5	64.0	W 28 - 24	U	N
Fri 10/22	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	58.5	W 26 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Utah State vs Hawai'i	-3.5	66.0	W 51 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Utah State at New Mexico State	-18.0	72.0	W 35 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Utah State at San José State	+4.5	58.0	W 48 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Utah State vs Wyoming	-6.0	52.0	L 17 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/26	Utah State at New Mexico	-17.0	48.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/4	Utah State at San Diego State	+6.5	49.5	W 46 - 13	O	Y
Sat 12/18	Utah State vs Oregon State	+7.0	68.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Air Force's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Air Force vs Lafayette	-40.5	49.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Air Force at Navy	-6.0	40.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	54.0	L 45 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Air Force vs Florida Atlantic	-3.5	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Air Force at New Mexico	-11.5	46.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	46.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Air Force at Boise State	+3.0	52.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	-3.0	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Air Force vs Army	-2.5	37.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/13	Air Force at Colorado State	-3.0	45.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/19	Air Force at Nevada	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Air Force vs UNLV	-18.5	49.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/28	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	.23	40%	32.6	35%	2.72	144	45%	303	3.54	.17	43%	24.4	42%	44%	3.32	55.6	1.6	1.9
AFA	.28	45%	31	46%	3.41	328	41%	96	4.32	.18	38%	19.8	36%	40%	3.64	38.8	0.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	14	32.6	38.1	39.8%	3.54	1.6	24	447	144	303	3.6	49%	51%	35%	45%	18%	.23
AFA Defense	13	19.8	19.7	37.6%	3.64	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	40%	20%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	14	24.4	20.7	42.7%	3.32	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	44%	20%	.17
AFA Offense	13	31	32.8	45.5%	4.32	0.8	22	424	328	96	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	14	29:16	23.7	44%	53%	6.2	55.6	1.6	1.9	7.6	2.3	2	28.9
Air Force	13	36:37	21.8	45%	78%	4.2	38.8	0.8	1.3	5.2	2.8	0	30.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	14	49%	35%	40.3	143.8	3.6	13		2.72	60%	11%	1.03
AFA Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.84	81%	13%	1.18

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	14	50%	42%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.71	61%	14%	1.04
AFA Offense	13	85%	46%	64.3	328.2	5.1	44	.25	3.41	80%	7%	1.03

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	14	51%	45%	21.6	36	303.4	8.4	14	41	15	.47	1.8	34%	33%	.41	7%	2.2
AFA Defense	13	48%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.23	1.6	38%	31%	.37	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	14	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.28	1.5	34%	29%	.35	6%	2.2
AFA Offense	13	14%	41%	4.2	8.7	95.5	11	22.6	8	4	.51	2.3	27%	34%	.51	2%	2.2

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: NR
Utah State's Offense Rating: NR
Utah State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Utah State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Utah State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #80
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #69
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: Air Force: 6.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: 0.1 Air Force: 7.4

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 6.2 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 32.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.1
Defense: 24.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Utah State's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 27
Utah State 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 26
Utah State 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Utah State 27
Air Force 27

Total Points: 54

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Utah State	49	Air Force	30	Air Force -4	Utah State	51.5	Over
2023	09/15	Air Force	39	Utah State	21	Air Force -9	Air Force	45.5	Over
2022	10/08	Utah State	34	Air Force	27	Air Force -11.5	Utah State	54.0	Over
2021	09/18	Air Force	45	Utah State	49	Air Force -9	Utah State	54.0	Over
2020	12/03	Utah State	7	Air Force	35	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	51.0	Under
2019	10/26	Air Force	31	Utah State	7	Air Force -4	Air Force	58.5	Under
2018	09/22	Utah State	42	Air Force	32	Utah State -10	Push	59.5	Over
2017	11/25	Air Force	38	Utah State	35	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	57.5	Over
2016	09/24	Utah State	20	Air Force	27	Air Force -3	Air Force	53.5	Under
2015	11/14	Air Force	35	Utah State	28	Utah State -1.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2014	10/11	Utah State	34	Air Force	16	Utah State -7.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/07	Air Force	20	Utah State	52	Utah State -8	Utah State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	6	6	7 Overs
Utah State	6	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	7 - 4	4 - 1	3 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 8	4 - 7	3 - 3	1 - 4

(#) USU at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#80	#54
Perf GradeGrade	#89	#3
OffenseOff	#72	#2
DefenseDef	#100	#36
Spec TeamsST	#71	#66
TalentTal	#107	#139
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Utah State Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#69	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#113	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#46	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#88	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#100
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#78
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#27	#94
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#111	#54
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 80° - Wind: 23 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Air Force -9.0 (54.0)
Utah State won at Air Force this year (49-45)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)
Utah State beat Air Force in 2022 (34-27)

USU's OC Anthony Tucker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Ephraim Banda (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD