UNLV at Air Force - 2021 Matchup Preview
UNLV logo UNLV Rebels at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Friday, November 26th 2021 (3:30 PM EST)
Air Force -18.5 (49.5)
Air Force 48 - UNLV: 14  (Mountain West)

 
Rebels (2 - 10) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Marcus Arroyo (0 - 9)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (20 - 36 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -13  (SP+ AFA -21)
Projected Score: UNLV: 22 - AFA: 29 (51)
AFA Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UNLV Travel: 597 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (33 - 20 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UNLV's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 UNLV vs Eastern Washington+2.066.0L 33 - 35OY
Sat 9/11 UNLV at Arizona State+34.555.5L 10 - 37UY
Sat 9/18 UNLV vs Iowa State+32.053.0L 3 - 48UN
Fri 9/24 UNLV at Fresno State+30.059.0L 30 - 38OY
Sat 10/2 UNLV at UTSA+21.555.5L 17 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 UNLV vs Utah State+7.564.0L 24 - 28UY
Thu 10/21 UNLV vs San José State+6.044.0L 20 - 27ON
Fri 10/29 UNLV at Nevada+19.058.0L 20 - 51ON
Sat 11/6 UNLV at New Mexico+1.545.0W 31 - 17OY
Sat 11/13 UNLV vs Hawai'i+3.555.5W 27 - 13UY
Fri 11/19 UNLV vs San Diego State+11.041.0L 20 - 28OY
Fri 11/26 UNLV at Air Force+18.549.5L 14 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule
Air Force's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Air Force vs Lafayette-40.549.5W 35 - 14UN
Sat 9/11 Air Force at Navy-6.040.0W 23 - 3UY
Sat 9/18 Air Force vs Utah State-9.054.0L 45 - 49ON
Sat 9/25 Air Force vs Florida Atlantic-3.554.0W 31 - 7UY
Sat 10/2 Air Force at New Mexico-11.546.0W 38 - 10OY
Sat 10/9 Air Force vs Wyoming-5.546.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/16 Air Force at Boise State+3.052.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/23 Air Force vs San Diego State-3.038.5L 14 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6 Air Force vs Army-2.537.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 11/13 Air Force at Colorado State-3.045.0W 35 - 21OY
Fri 11/19 Air Force at Nevada-1.553.5W 41 - 39OY
Fri 11/26 Air Force vs UNLV-18.549.5W 48 - 14OY
Tue 12/28 Air Force vs Louisville-1.055.0W 31 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV.1436%20.836%2.6311036%2034.14.2544%32.840%49%4.2637.91.81.4
AFA.2845%3146%3.4132841%964.32.1838%19.836%40%3.6438.80.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNLV#56 (.21)42% (84)43% (83)3.36 (16)24840% (90)1734.26 (33)#34 (.11)37% (14)40% (39)36% (14)4.05 (97)49.20.61.6
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Offense1220.820.336.1%4.141.8163121102033.346%54%36%36%31%.14
AFA Defense1319.819.737.6%3.641.3 - - - - - 51%48%36%40%20%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNLV Defense1232.835.844%4.261.4 - - - - - 53%46%40%49%18%.25
AFA Offense133132.845.5%4.320.822424328965.185%14%46%41%9%.28

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UNLV1229:3915.535%25%4.537.91.81.451.8027.5
Air Force1336:3721.845%78%4.238.80.81.35.22.8030.2
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense1246%36%32.9109.83.318.072.6386%20%0.99
AFA Defense1351%36% - - - - .152.8481%13%1.18
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense1253%40% - - - - .143.0862%13%1.12
AFA Offense1385%46%64.3328.25.144.253.4180%7%1.03

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense1254%36%16.127.6202.57.312.61114.221.837%27%.2411%2
AFA Defense1348%40% - - - - - - 8.231.638%31%.377%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense1246%49% - - - - - - 9.411.531%35%.525%2.1
AFA Offense1314%41%4.28.795.51122.684.512.327%34%.512%2.2

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: NR
UNLV's Offense Rating: NR
UNLV's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UNLV's 2021 Expected Record: -
UNLV's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.8  #116
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9  #117
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV:    Air Force: 6.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -13.8   Air Force: 7.4




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 6.2 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4  #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


UNLV Scoring
Offense: 20.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

UNLV's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 29
UNLV 22

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 25
UNLV 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Air Force 33
UNLV 20

Total Points: 53
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11UNLV51Air Force48UNLV -7Air Force65.5Over
202311/18Air Force27UNLV31Air Force -2.5UNLV46.5Over
202210/15UNLV7Air Force42Air Force -10Air Force50.0Under
202111/26Air Force48UNLV14Air Force -18.5Air Force49.5Over
201810/19UNLV35Air Force41Air Force -9.5UNLV55.5Over
201710/14Air Force34UNLV30Air Force -9.5UNLV65.5Under
201411/08UNLV21Air Force48Air Force -4.5Air Force0
201311/21Air Force21UNLV41Air Force -1UNLV58.5Over
201209/22UNLV38Air Force35
201111/19Air Force45UNLV17
201011/18UNLV20Air Force35
200911/14Air Force45UNLV17
200810/18UNLV28Air Force29
200710/06Air Force31UNLV14
200611/24UNLV42Air Force39
200510/15Air Force42UNLV7
200409/18UNLV10Air Force27
200310/11Air Force24UNLV7
200111/17Air Force10UNLV34
200009/29UNLV34Air Force13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1345 Overs
UNLV742 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 92 - 61 - 41 - 2
Road Teams9 - 116 - 22 - 14 - 1

(#) UNLV at (#) AFA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNLVAFA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #116 #54
Perf GradeGrade #107 #3
OffenseOff #109 #2
DefenseDef #93 #36
Spec TeamsST #34 #66
TalentTal #108 #139
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
UNLV on Offense
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #109 #36
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #117 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UNLV Run Game
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #110 #81
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #65 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #8
UNLV Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNLV OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #112 #56
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #123 #13
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Air Force on Offense
CategoryCatAFA OffUNLV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #2 #93
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #57 #104
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Air Force Run Game
CategoryCat
AFA OffUNLV Def
Run GameRun #27 #70
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #107
Air Force Pass Game
CategoryCatAFA OffUNLV Def
Pass GamePass #31 #97
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #111 #94
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 64°
Rematch from Week 13
Air Force -18.5 (49.5)
Air Force won vs UNLV this year (48-14)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Air Force in 2023 (31-27)
Air Force beat UNLV in 2022 (42-7)

  
UNLV's OC Glenn Thomas (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Peter Hansen (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD