UNLV at Air Force - 2021 Matchup Preview

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons

Friday, November 26th 2021 (3:30 PM EST)
Air Force -18.5 (49.5)
Air Force 48 - UNLV: 14 (Mountain West)

Rebels (2 - 10) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Marcus Arroyo (0 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (35 - 29 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AFA is playing their 4th straight game
UNLV is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -13 (SP+ AFA -21)
Projected Score: UNLV: 32 - AFA: 29 (61)
AFA Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
UNLV Travel: 597 miles, 1 hrs behind

Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNLV Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UNLV's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	UNLV vs Eastern Washington	+2.0	66.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/11	UNLV at Arizona State	+34.5	55.5	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/18	UNLV vs Iowa State	+32.0	53.0	L 3 - 48	U	N
Fri 9/24	UNLV at Fresno State	+30.0	59.0	L 30 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/2	UNLV at UTSA	+21.5	55.5	L 17 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	UNLV vs Utah State	+7.5	64.0	L 24 - 28	U	Y
Thu 10/21	UNLV vs San José State	+6.0	44.0	L 20 - 27	O	N
Fri 10/29	UNLV at Nevada	+19.0	58.0	L 20 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/6	UNLV at New Mexico	+1.5	45.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/13	UNLV vs Hawai'i	+3.5	55.5	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Fri 11/19	UNLV vs San Diego State	+11.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	Y
Fri 11/26	UNLV at Air Force	+18.5	49.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Air Force's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Air Force vs Lafayette	-40.5	49.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Air Force at Navy	-6.0	40.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	54.0	L 45 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Air Force vs Florida Atlantic	-3.5	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Air Force at New Mexico	-11.5	46.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	46.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Air Force at Boise State	+3.0	52.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	-3.0	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Air Force vs Army	-2.5	37.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/13	Air Force at Colorado State	-3.0	45.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/19	Air Force at Nevada	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Air Force vs UNLV	-18.5	49.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/28	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV	.11	38%	34.1	43%	3.06	140	33%	186	3.04	.34	48%	28	54%	41%	4.13	54	1.5	0.8
AFA	.33	53%	29.8	54%	3.83	306	49%	84	4.06	.12	43%	30.3	43%	44%	2.7	40.8	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Offense	6	34.1	34.7	37.7%	3.04	1.5	19	326	140	186	3.8	46%	54%	43%	33%	22%	.11
AFA Defense	6	30.3	27.8	43.4%	2.7	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	60%	40%	43%	44%	10%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNLV Defense	6	28	29.3	47.9%	4.13	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	54%	41%	13%	.34
AFA Offense	6	29.8	27.5	53.3%	4.06	1.3	21	389	306	84	5.9	82%	18%	54%	49%	10%	.33

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UNLV	6	29:16	18.7	37%	67%	6.5	54	1.5	0.8	5.2	2.3	0	26
Air Force	6	32:30	21.3	49%	73%	4.5	40.8	1.3	1.3	2.8	1.2	0	27.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Offense	6	46%	43%	37.2	140.2	3.8	7	.16	3.06	90%	15%	1.1
AFA Defense	6	60%	43%	-	-	-	-	.04	3.02	71%	6%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNLV Defense	6	54%	54%	-	-	-	-	.41	3.56	72%	9%	1.17
AFA Offense	6	82%	54%	52	305.7	5.9	16	.31	3.83	80%	7%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Offense	6	54%	33%	19.2	32.7	185.8	5.7	9.7	6	4	.06	1.4	36%	28%	.27	7%	2
AFA Defense	6	40%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.24	1.6	29%	37%	.44	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNLV Defense	6	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.25	1.6	30%	34%	.45	4%	2.2
AFA Offense	6	18%	49%	5.7	10.2	83.7	8.2	14.8	3	3	.4	1.5	23%	34%	.38	3%	1.8

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: NR
UNLV's Offense Rating: NR
UNLV's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UNLV's 2021 Expected Record: -
UNLV's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.8 #116
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #117
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UNLV: Air Force: 6.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UNLV: -13.8 Air Force: 7.4

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 6.2 NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.7
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

UNLV's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 32
Air Force 29

Projected Total Points: 61

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	UNLV	51	Air Force	48	UNLV -7	Air Force	65.5	Over
2023	11/18	Air Force	27	UNLV	31	Air Force -2.5	UNLV	46.5	Over
2022	10/15	UNLV	7	Air Force	42	Air Force -10	Air Force	50.0	Under
2021	11/26	Air Force	48	UNLV	14	Air Force -18.5	Air Force	49.5	Over
2018	10/19	UNLV	35	Air Force	41	Air Force -9.5	UNLV	55.5	Over
2017	10/14	Air Force	34	UNLV	30	Air Force -9.5	UNLV	65.5	Under
2014	11/08	UNLV	21	Air Force	48	Air Force -4.5	Air Force	0
2013	11/21	Air Force	21	UNLV	41	Air Force -1	UNLV	58.5	Over
2012	09/22	UNLV	38	Air Force	35
2011	11/19	Air Force	45	UNLV	17
2010	11/18	UNLV	20	Air Force	35
2009	11/14	Air Force	45	UNLV	17
2008	10/18	UNLV	28	Air Force	29
2007	10/06	Air Force	31	UNLV	14
2006	11/24	UNLV	42	Air Force	39
2005	10/15	Air Force	42	UNLV	7
2004	09/18	UNLV	10	Air Force	27
2003	10/11	Air Force	24	UNLV	7
2001	11/17	Air Force	10	UNLV	34
2000	09/29	UNLV	34	Air Force	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	13	4	5 Overs
UNLV	7	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 4	1 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 11	6 - 2	2 - 1	4 - 1

(#) UNLV at (#) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNLV	AFA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#116	#54
Perf GradeGrade	#107	#3
OffenseOff	#109	#2
DefenseDef	#93	#36
Spec TeamsST	#34	#66
TalentTal	#108	#139
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

UNLV Injury Report

Air Force Injury Report

UNLV on Offense


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	AFA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#117	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UNLV Run Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#110	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#65	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

UNLV Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#112	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#123	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNLV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#93
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#104
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#27	#70
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#107

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#111	#94
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Air Force -18.5 (49.5)
Air Force won vs UNLV this year (48-14)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Air Force last year (51-48)
UNLV beat Air Force in 2023 (31-27)

UNLV's OC Glenn Thomas (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Peter Hansen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD