Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

How teams perform ATS when they're the home underdog (getting points). This isolates the "hostile environment for visiting favorites" effect.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Dog Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▼	Avg Margin vs Spread	Outright Wins
1	UTSA	American Athletic	5	5-0	100.0%	+18.20	4
2	BYU	Big 12	7	6-1	85.7%	+11.71	5
3	NC State	ACC	10	8-2	80.0%	+10.05	7
4	Ohio	Mid-American	10	8-2	80.0%	+7.00	7
5	South Alabama	Sun Belt	5	4-1	80.0%	+7.00	1
6	Hawai'i	Mountain West	22	15-5-2	75.0%	+5.23	9
7	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	8	6-2	75.0%	+6.50	6
8	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	8	6-2	75.0%	+2.94	2
9	Washington State	Pac-12	11	8-3	72.7%	+2.82	5
10	Central Michigan	Mid-American	7	5-2	71.4%	+3.07	3
11	Marshall	Sun Belt	7	5-2	71.4%	+3.50	4
12	Memphis	American Athletic	7	5-2	71.4%	+3.14	4
13	Missouri	SEC	10	7-3	70.0%	+6.20	5
14	Florida	SEC	13	9-4	69.2%	+7.35	8
15	California	ACC	12	8-4	66.7%	+3.63	3
16	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	13	8-4-1	66.7%	-2.69	5
17	Miami	ACC	6	4-2	66.7%	-2.83	4
18	Minnesota	Big Ten	11	6-3-2	66.7%	+3.77	5
19	Oregon State	Pac-12	9	6-3	66.7%	+1.67	4
20	Wyoming	Mountain West	15	10-5	66.7%	+5.13	7
21	Rice	American Athletic	17	11-6	64.7%	+2.85	9
22	UConn	FBS Independents	14	9-5	64.3%	+5.00	5
23	Kansas	Big 12	12	7-4-1	63.6%	+2.17	3
24	Virginia	ACC	11	7-4	63.6%	-4.68	2
25	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	8	5-3	62.5%	+7.31	4
26	LSU	SEC	9	5-3-1	62.5%	-0.67	5
27	Louisiana	Sun Belt	8	5-3	62.5%	+5.50	4
28	Bowling Green	Mid-American	13	8-5	61.5%	-0.58	6
29	Duke	ACC	13	8-5	61.5%	+0.46	5
30	Navy	American Athletic	14	8-5-1	61.5%	+2.21	5
31	Oklahoma State	Big 12	13	8-5	61.5%	+3.42	5
32	South Florida	American Athletic	13	8-5	61.5%	+3.96	2
33	Arizona	Big 12	15	9-6	60.0%	+1.90	5
34	Northwestern	Big Ten	10	6-4	60.0%	+1.80	3
35	Texas State	Sun Belt	10	6-4	60.0%	+2.15	4
36	Utah State	Mountain West	15	9-6	60.0%	+4.20	5
37	Ball State	Mid-American	17	10-7	58.8%	+1.85	6
38	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	13	7-5-1	58.3%	+3.23	4
39	Kentucky	SEC	12	7-5	58.3%	+4.13	3
40	San Diego State	Mountain West	14	8-6	57.1%	+5.71	6
41	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	16	9-7	56.3%	+4.41	7
42	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	18	10-8	55.6%	+3.75	6
43	Colorado	Big 12	18	10-8	55.6%	-0.81	4
44	Georgia Tech	ACC	9	5-4	55.6%	-1.56	4
45	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	11	6-5	54.5%	+0.18	6
46	UNLV	Mountain West	12	6-5-1	54.5%	-1.54	3
47	Houston	Big 12	13	7-6	53.8%	+1.85	6
48	New Mexico State	Conference USA	13	7-6	53.8%	+5.35	4
49	Akron	Mid-American	17	9-8	52.9%	-2.50	3
50	Boston College	ACC	17	9-8	52.9%	-1.56	3
51	Baylor	Big 12	11	5-5-1	50.0%	-1.36	3
52	Buffalo	Mid-American	12	5-5-2	50.0%	+2.38	3
53	East Carolina	American Athletic	9	4-4-1	50.0%	+3.50	2
54	Illinois	Big Ten	12	6-6	50.0%	+3.83	5
55	Kansas State	Big 12	6	3-3	50.0%	+3.08	2
56	Louisville	ACC	6	3-3	50.0%	+9.50	3
57	South Carolina	SEC	14	7-7	50.0%	+5.71	5
58	Syracuse	ACC	14	7-7	50.0%	-1.71	5
59	Texas A&M	SEC	5	2-2-1	50.0%	+7.50	2
60	Tulane	American Athletic	6	3-3	50.0%	+0.00	1
61	UCLA	Big Ten	12	6-6	50.0%	+0.04	5
62	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	18	9-9	50.0%	+4.06	7
63	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4-4	50.0%	-0.50	2
64	UTEP	Conference USA	15	7-8	46.7%	+0.03	5
65	Maryland	Big Ten	13	6-7	46.2%	-7.31	2
66	Temple	American Athletic	24	11-13	45.8%	-1.58	5
67	Arkansas	SEC	11	5-6	45.5%	-6.27	2
68	Wake Forest	ACC	11	5-6	45.5%	-0.91	2
69	Florida State	ACC	9	4-5	44.4%	-0.17	2
70	Pittsburgh	ACC	9	4-5	44.4%	-0.61	2
71	Wisconsin	Big Ten	9	4-5	44.4%	-3.50	2
72	West Virginia	Big 12	16	7-9	43.8%	-3.28	6
73	Army	American Athletic	7	3-4	42.9%	+1.14	2
74	Michigan State	Big Ten	14	6-8	42.9%	-5.50	5
75	Tennessee	SEC	7	3-4	42.9%	-1.21	2
76	Texas Tech	Big 12	8	3-4-1	42.9%	-1.63	3
77	Massachusetts	Mid-American	19	8-11	42.1%	-4.68	1
78	Auburn	SEC	12	5-7	41.7%	-0.96	1
79	Kent State	Mid-American	12	5-7	41.7%	-2.75	2
80	Nebraska	Big Ten	12	5-7	41.7%	-3.08	1
81	Stanford	ACC	25	10-14-1	41.7%	-1.54	5
82	Michigan	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	+0.30	2
83	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	10	4-6	40.0%	-1.85	2
84	New Mexico	Mountain West	16	6-9-1	40.0%	-4.38	4
85	Penn State	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	+0.50	0
86	USC	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	-6.80	0
87	Washington	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	-1.80	1
88	Arizona State	Big 12	14	5-8-1	38.5%	-2.04	4
89	Florida International	Conference USA	16	6-10	37.5%	-6.41	3
90	Troy	Sun Belt	8	3-5	37.5%	-3.00	3
91	Western Michigan	Mid-American	8	3-5	37.5%	-1.75	2
92	Vanderbilt	SEC	19	7-12	36.8%	-1.39	3
93	Indiana	Big Ten	11	4-7	36.4%	-4.50	1
94	North Texas	American Athletic	11	4-7	36.4%	-3.50	2
95	Colorado State	Mountain West	14	5-9	35.7%	-6.86	2
96	Mississippi State	SEC	17	6-11	35.3%	-5.94	2
97	Nevada	Mountain West	18	6-11-1	35.3%	-0.19	4
98	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	17	6-11	35.3%	-3.85	2
99	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	12	4-8	33.3%	-9.79	1
100	Air Force	Mountain West	7	2-5	28.6%	+1.86	2
101	Cincinnati	Big 12	7	2-5	28.6%	-5.64	0
102	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	7	2-5	28.6%	-2.36	2
103	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	8	2-5-1	28.6%	-3.19	2
104	UAB	American Athletic	11	3-8	27.3%	-1.27	3
105	Purdue	Big Ten	15	4-11	26.7%	-7.90	2
106	Iowa State	Big 12	5	1-3-1	25.0%	+0.20	1
107	Rutgers	Big Ten	13	3-9-1	25.0%	-11.12	1
108	Tulsa	American Athletic	13	3-9-1	25.0%	-9.15	1
109	Georgia State	Sun Belt	10	2-7-1	22.2%	-5.95	1
110	Charlotte	American Athletic	19	4-15	21.1%	-7.16	3
111	North Carolina	ACC	6	1-5	16.7%	-7.25	0
112	San José State	Mountain West	7	1-6	14.3%	-11.93	0

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 5 home underdog games required. Home underdog = spread > 0 (team getting points). ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2021–2025.