Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

How teams perform ATS when they're the home underdog (getting points). This isolates the "hostile environment for visiting favorites" effect.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Dog Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▲	Avg Margin vs Spread	Outright Wins
1	San José State	Mountain West	7	1-6	14.3%	-11.93	0
2	North Carolina	ACC	6	1-5	16.7%	-7.25	0
3	Charlotte	American Athletic	19	4-15	21.1%	-7.16	3
4	Georgia State	Sun Belt	10	2-7-1	22.2%	-5.95	1
5	Iowa State	Big 12	5	1-3-1	25.0%	+0.20	1
6	Rutgers	Big Ten	13	3-9-1	25.0%	-11.12	1
7	Tulsa	American Athletic	13	3-9-1	25.0%	-9.15	1
8	Purdue	Big Ten	15	4-11	26.7%	-7.90	2
9	UAB	American Athletic	11	3-8	27.3%	-1.27	3
10	Air Force	Mountain West	7	2-5	28.6%	+1.86	2
11	Cincinnati	Big 12	7	2-5	28.6%	-5.64	0
12	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	7	2-5	28.6%	-2.36	2
13	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	8	2-5-1	28.6%	-3.19	2
14	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	12	4-8	33.3%	-9.79	1
15	Mississippi State	SEC	17	6-11	35.3%	-5.94	2
16	Nevada	Mountain West	18	6-11-1	35.3%	-0.19	4
17	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	17	6-11	35.3%	-3.85	2
18	Colorado State	Mountain West	14	5-9	35.7%	-6.86	2
19	Indiana	Big Ten	11	4-7	36.4%	-4.50	1
20	North Texas	American Athletic	11	4-7	36.4%	-3.50	2
21	Vanderbilt	SEC	19	7-12	36.8%	-1.39	3
22	Florida International	Conference USA	16	6-10	37.5%	-6.41	3
23	Troy	Sun Belt	8	3-5	37.5%	-3.00	3
24	Western Michigan	Mid-American	8	3-5	37.5%	-1.75	2
25	Arizona State	Big 12	14	5-8-1	38.5%	-2.04	4
26	Michigan	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	+0.30	2
27	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	10	4-6	40.0%	-1.85	2
28	New Mexico	Mountain West	16	6-9-1	40.0%	-4.38	4
29	Penn State	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	+0.50	0
30	USC	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	-6.80	0
31	Washington	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	-1.80	1
32	Auburn	SEC	12	5-7	41.7%	-0.96	1
33	Kent State	Mid-American	12	5-7	41.7%	-2.75	2
34	Nebraska	Big Ten	12	5-7	41.7%	-3.08	1
35	Stanford	ACC	25	10-14-1	41.7%	-1.54	5
36	Massachusetts	Mid-American	19	8-11	42.1%	-4.68	1
37	Army	American Athletic	7	3-4	42.9%	+1.14	2
38	Michigan State	Big Ten	14	6-8	42.9%	-5.50	5
39	Tennessee	SEC	7	3-4	42.9%	-1.21	2
40	Texas Tech	Big 12	8	3-4-1	42.9%	-1.63	3
41	West Virginia	Big 12	16	7-9	43.8%	-3.28	6
42	Florida State	ACC	9	4-5	44.4%	-0.17	2
43	Pittsburgh	ACC	9	4-5	44.4%	-0.61	2
44	Wisconsin	Big Ten	9	4-5	44.4%	-3.50	2
45	Arkansas	SEC	11	5-6	45.5%	-6.27	2
46	Wake Forest	ACC	11	5-6	45.5%	-0.91	2
47	Temple	American Athletic	24	11-13	45.8%	-1.58	5
48	Maryland	Big Ten	13	6-7	46.2%	-7.31	2
49	UTEP	Conference USA	15	7-8	46.7%	+0.03	5
50	Baylor	Big 12	11	5-5-1	50.0%	-1.36	3
51	Buffalo	Mid-American	12	5-5-2	50.0%	+2.38	3
52	East Carolina	American Athletic	9	4-4-1	50.0%	+3.50	2
53	Illinois	Big Ten	12	6-6	50.0%	+3.83	5
54	Kansas State	Big 12	6	3-3	50.0%	+3.08	2
55	Louisville	ACC	6	3-3	50.0%	+9.50	3
56	South Carolina	SEC	14	7-7	50.0%	+5.71	5
57	Syracuse	ACC	14	7-7	50.0%	-1.71	5
58	Texas A&M	SEC	5	2-2-1	50.0%	+7.50	2
59	Tulane	American Athletic	6	3-3	50.0%	+0.00	1
60	UCLA	Big Ten	12	6-6	50.0%	+0.04	5
61	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	18	9-9	50.0%	+4.06	7
62	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4-4	50.0%	-0.50	2
63	Akron	Mid-American	17	9-8	52.9%	-2.50	3
64	Boston College	ACC	17	9-8	52.9%	-1.56	3
65	Houston	Big 12	13	7-6	53.8%	+1.85	6
66	New Mexico State	Conference USA	13	7-6	53.8%	+5.35	4
67	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	11	6-5	54.5%	+0.18	6
68	UNLV	Mountain West	12	6-5-1	54.5%	-1.54	3
69	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	18	10-8	55.6%	+3.75	6
70	Colorado	Big 12	18	10-8	55.6%	-0.81	4
71	Georgia Tech	ACC	9	5-4	55.6%	-1.56	4
72	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	16	9-7	56.3%	+4.41	7
73	San Diego State	Mountain West	14	8-6	57.1%	+5.71	6
74	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	13	7-5-1	58.3%	+3.23	4
75	Kentucky	SEC	12	7-5	58.3%	+4.13	3
76	Ball State	Mid-American	17	10-7	58.8%	+1.85	6
77	Arizona	Big 12	15	9-6	60.0%	+1.90	5
78	Northwestern	Big Ten	10	6-4	60.0%	+1.80	3
79	Texas State	Sun Belt	10	6-4	60.0%	+2.15	4
80	Utah State	Mountain West	15	9-6	60.0%	+4.20	5
81	Bowling Green	Mid-American	13	8-5	61.5%	-0.58	6
82	Duke	ACC	13	8-5	61.5%	+0.46	5
83	Navy	American Athletic	14	8-5-1	61.5%	+2.21	5
84	Oklahoma State	Big 12	13	8-5	61.5%	+3.42	5
85	South Florida	American Athletic	13	8-5	61.5%	+3.96	2
86	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	8	5-3	62.5%	+7.31	4
87	LSU	SEC	9	5-3-1	62.5%	-0.67	5
88	Louisiana	Sun Belt	8	5-3	62.5%	+5.50	4
89	Kansas	Big 12	12	7-4-1	63.6%	+2.17	3
90	Virginia	ACC	11	7-4	63.6%	-4.68	2
91	UConn	FBS Independents	14	9-5	64.3%	+5.00	5
92	Rice	American Athletic	17	11-6	64.7%	+2.85	9
93	California	ACC	12	8-4	66.7%	+3.63	3
94	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	13	8-4-1	66.7%	-2.69	5
95	Miami	ACC	6	4-2	66.7%	-2.83	4
96	Minnesota	Big Ten	11	6-3-2	66.7%	+3.77	5
97	Oregon State	Pac-12	9	6-3	66.7%	+1.67	4
98	Wyoming	Mountain West	15	10-5	66.7%	+5.13	7
99	Florida	SEC	13	9-4	69.2%	+7.35	8
100	Missouri	SEC	10	7-3	70.0%	+6.20	5
101	Central Michigan	Mid-American	7	5-2	71.4%	+3.07	3
102	Marshall	Sun Belt	7	5-2	71.4%	+3.50	4
103	Memphis	American Athletic	7	5-2	71.4%	+3.14	4
104	Washington State	Pac-12	11	8-3	72.7%	+2.82	5
105	Hawai'i	Mountain West	22	15-5-2	75.0%	+5.23	9
106	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	8	6-2	75.0%	+6.50	6
107	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	8	6-2	75.0%	+2.94	2
108	NC State	ACC	10	8-2	80.0%	+10.05	7
109	Ohio	Mid-American	10	8-2	80.0%	+7.00	7
110	South Alabama	Sun Belt	5	4-1	80.0%	+7.00	1
111	BYU	Big 12	7	6-1	85.7%	+11.71	5
112	UTSA	American Athletic	5	5-0	100.0%	+18.20	4

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 5 home underdog games required. Home underdog = spread > 0 (team getting points). ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2021–2025.