Oregon State at Nevada Week 7 College Football Matchup Oregon State at Nevada Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Mackay Stadium Reno, NV · Turf · 26,000 cap
Oregon State✈ 389 miSame TZ
37 42
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oregon State
25
NEV +3
Nevada
24
P&R Line Oregon State -1
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Oregon State -3 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Nevada, while Game Control favors Oregon State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Nevada wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -3
O/U 47.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Nevada · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.5W38–1557.5W38–15UN
Sat 9/7Oregon State at San Diego State-5.5W21–054.5W21–0UY
Sat 9/14Oregon State vs Oregon+16.0L14–4950.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/21Oregon State vs Purdue-1.5W38–2151.0W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.0W39–3147.0W39–31ON
Sat 10/12Oregon State at Nevada-3.0L37–4247.0L37–42ON
Sat 10/19Oregon State vs UNLV+6.5L25–3361.0L25–33UN
Sat 10/26Oregon State at California+13.0L7–4451.0L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Oregon State vs San José State-3.0L13–2458.5L13–24UN
Sat 11/16Oregon State at Air Force-3.0L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/23Oregon State vs Washington State+11.0W41–3857.0W41–38OY
Fri 11/29Oregon State at Boise State+17.5L18–3458.5L18–34UY
Nevada 2024 Schedule
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Nevada vs SMU+28.0L24–2955.5L24–29UY
Sat 8/31Nevada at Troy+7.5W28–2644.5W28–26OY
Sat 9/7Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.5L17–2056.5L17–20UN
Sat 9/14Nevada at Minnesota+17.5L0–2744.5L0–27UN
Sat 9/21Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.5W49–1654.5W49–16OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Nevada at San José State+7.0L31–3551.5L31–35OY
Sat 10/12Nevada vs Oregon State+3.0W42–3747.0W42–37OY
Fri 10/18Nevada vs Fresno State+3.0L21–2450.0L21–24UY
Sat 10/26Nevada at Hawai'i+2.5L13–3442.0L13–34ON
Sat 11/2Nevada vs Colorado State+2.0L21–3845.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/9Nevada at Boise State+23.5L21–2860.5L21–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Nevada vs Air Force-3.0L19–2244.5L19–22UN
Sat 11/30Nevada at UNLV+17.5L14–3854.5L14–38UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Nevada PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Nevada
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Nevada
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Nevada
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oregon State #87
+0.399
Nevada #55
+0.477
Nevada Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #125
+0.290
Nevada #57
+0.584
Nevada Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oregon State #115
0.134
Nevada #95
0.144
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Nevada Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #75
+8.200
Nevada #73
+8.228
Nevada Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oregon State #59
+0.901
Nevada #46
+0.926
Nevada Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oregon State #134
75.1
Nevada #124
73.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Nevada Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oregon State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oregon State
-6.6
Nevada
-21.6
Offense Rating
Oregon State
13.0
Nevada
4.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oregon State
19.6
Nevada
26.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Nevada Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oregon State #121
0.00
Nevada #127
0.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #129
1.50
Nevada #28
0.60
Nevada +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oregon State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oregon State #1
54.4
Nevada #1
41.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #109
32.2
Nevada #111
34.1
Oregon State +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Nevada
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Nevada
38.9 — 33.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Nevada won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Ioane Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself