Sat, Nov 21 2026
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
·
Turf
·
45,674 cap
Utah State✈ 609 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Oregon State,
while Game Control favors Utah State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Utah State wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2026 Schedule
Utah State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Utah State vs Idaho State | -18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Utah State at Washington | +23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Utah State at Utah | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Utah State vs Troy | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Utah State at Boise State | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/9 | Utah State vs Washington State | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/24 | Utah State at Texas State | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Utah State vs Colorado State | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Utah State vs Fresno State | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Utah State at San Diego State | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Utah State at Oregon State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Utah State vs TBD | -18 | — | — | — | — |
Oregon State 2026 Schedule
Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Oregon State at Houston | +21.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Oregon State vs Texas Tech | +31.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Oregon State vs Montana | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Oregon State at UTEP | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Oregon State at Colorado State | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Oregon State vs San Diego State | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Oregon State vs Washington State | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Oregon State at Fresno State | +16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Oregon State vs Texas State | +12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Oregon State at Boise State | +17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Oregon State vs Utah State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +0.06
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Utah State Edge
Utah State +22.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Bronco Mendenhall #96
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 2
#31
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 2
#137
Oregon State
JaMarcus Shephard #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mitch Dahlen
Yr 1
#67
DC
Mike MacIntyre
Yr 1
#55
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓