Sat, Nov 27 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oregon wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Oregon wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon -7.5
O/U 61.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2021 Schedule
Oregon State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oregon State at Purdue | +7.0L21–30 | 67.0 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oregon State vs Hawai'i | -11.0W45–27 | 65.0 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Oregon State vs Idaho | -28.0W42–0 | 63.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Oregon State at USC | +11.0W45–27 | 62.5 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Oregon State vs Washington | -2.5W27–24 | 57.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Oregon State at Washington State | -4.0L24–31 | 59.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Oregon State vs Utah | +3.0W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oregon State at California | -2.5L25–39 | 56.5 | L25–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Oregon State at Colorado | -11.5L34–37 | 55.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Oregon State vs Stanford | -12.5W35–14 | 56.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oregon State vs Arizona State | +2.5W24–10 | 59.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Oregon State at Oregon | +7.5L29–38 | 61.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Oregon State vs Utah State | -7.0L13–24 | 68.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Oregon 2021 Schedule
Oregon's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oregon vs Fresno State | -18.0W31–24 | 62.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oregon at Ohio State | +14.5W35–28 | 65.0 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Oregon vs Stony Brook | -42.0W48–7 | 54.5 | W48–7 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Oregon vs Arizona | -29.5W41–19 | 58.5 | W41–19 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Oregon at Stanford | -8.5L24–31 | 57.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | Oregon vs California | -13.5W24–17 | 53.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Oregon at UCLA | +1.0W34–31 | 62.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oregon vs Colorado | -24.5W52–29 | 49.0 | W52–29 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Oregon at Washington | -7.0W26–16 | 48.0 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Oregon vs Washington State | -13.0W38–24 | 58.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oregon at Utah | +3.0L7–38 | 58.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -7.5W38–29 | 61.5 | W38–29 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/3 | Oregon vs Utah | +3.0L10–38 | 57.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Wed 12/29 | Oregon vs Oklahoma | +7.0L32–47 | 64.0 | L32–47 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +12.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon
95.6 — 3.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 9
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 1
#1
Oregon
Mario Cristobal #1
28–10 (74%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Joe Moorhead
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim DeRuyter
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓