Sun, Oct 29 2023
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Arizona Stadium
Tucson, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,029 cap
Oregon State✈ 1,079 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oregon State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -3
O/U 57.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2023 Schedule
Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Oregon State at San José State | -14.0W42–17 | 56.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oregon State vs UC Davis | -24.0W55–7 | 57.0 | W55–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oregon State vs San Diego State | -24.5W26–9 | 48.5 | W26–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Oregon State at Washington State | -3.0L35–38 | 58.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Fri 9/29 | Oregon State vs Utah | -4.0W21–7 | 43.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Oregon State at California | -7.5W52–40 | 51.0 | W52–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Oregon State vs UCLA | -3.5W36–24 | 53.5 | W36–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Oregon State at Arizona | -3.0L24–27 | 57.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Oregon State at Colorado | -13.0W26–19 | 60.5 | W26–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Oregon State vs Stanford | -21.5W62–17 | 51.5 | W62–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Oregon State vs Washington | -1.5L20–22 | 62.5 | L20–22 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Oregon State at Oregon | +14.0L7–31 | 61.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 12/29 | Oregon State vs Notre Dame | +5.5L8–40 | 40.5 | L8–40 | O | N |
Arizona 2023 Schedule
Arizona's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Arizona vs Northern Arizona | -28.5W38–3 | 61.0 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Arizona at Mississippi State | +9.0L24–31 | 60.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Arizona vs UTEP | -18.0W31–10 | 57.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Arizona at Stanford | -13.0W21–20 | 60.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Arizona vs Washington | +20.0L24–31 | 66.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Arizona at USC | +21.0L41–43 | 69.5 | L41–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Arizona at Washington State | +7.5W44–6 | 57.5 | W44–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Arizona vs Oregon State | +3.0W27–24 | 57.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Arizona vs UCLA | +2.5W27–10 | 50.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Arizona at Colorado | -6.0W34–31 | 55.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Arizona vs Utah | -2.5W42–18 | 45.5 | W42–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Arizona at Arizona State | -12.5W59–23 | 48.5 | W59–23 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/28 | Arizona vs Oklahoma | -2.5W38–24 | 59.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +21.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona
35.9 — 34.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arizona won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
29–31 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 3
#1
DC
Trent Bray
Yr 2
#1
Arizona
Jedd Fisch #1
8–19 (30%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 3
#1
DC
Johnny Nansen
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓