Sat, Nov 13 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
·
Turf
·
45,674 cap
Stanford✈ 495 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oregon State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -12.5
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Stanford 2021 Schedule
Stanford's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Stanford vs Kansas State | +3.0L7–24 | 54.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Stanford at USC | +17.0W42–28 | 53.0 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Stanford at Vanderbilt | -13.0W41–23 | 49.0 | W41–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Stanford vs UCLA | +4.0L24–35 | 60.5 | L24–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Stanford vs Oregon | +8.5W31–24 | 57.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Stanford at Arizona State | +13.5L10–28 | 53.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Stanford at Washington State | +1.0L31–34 | 53.0 | L31–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Stanford vs Washington | -2.5L13–20 | 45.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Fri 11/5 | Stanford vs Utah | +10.0L7–52 | 52.0 | L7–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Stanford at Oregon State | +12.5L14–35 | 56.5 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Stanford vs California | +2.5L11–41 | 46.0 | L11–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Stanford vs Notre Dame | +20.5L14–45 | 53.0 | L14–45 | O | N |
Oregon State 2021 Schedule
Oregon State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oregon State at Purdue | +7.0L21–30 | 67.0 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oregon State vs Hawai'i | -11.0W45–27 | 65.0 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Oregon State vs Idaho | -28.0W42–0 | 63.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Oregon State at USC | +11.0W45–27 | 62.5 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Oregon State vs Washington | -2.5W27–24 | 57.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Oregon State at Washington State | -4.0L24–31 | 59.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Oregon State vs Utah | +3.0W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oregon State at California | -2.5L25–39 | 56.5 | L25–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Oregon State at Colorado | -11.5L34–37 | 55.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Oregon State vs Stanford | -12.5W35–14 | 56.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oregon State vs Arizona State | +2.5W24–10 | 59.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Oregon State at Oregon | +7.5L29–38 | 61.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Oregon State vs Utah State | -7.0L13–24 | 68.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +17.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon State
94.0 — 3.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon State won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Stanford
David Shaw #1
92–37 (71%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Tavita Pritchard
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Anderson
Yr 1
#1
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓