UNLV at Oregon State Week 8 College Football Matchup UNLV at Oregon State Matchup - Week 8
Sun, Oct 20 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Reser Stadium Corvallis, OR · Turf · 45,674 cap
UNLV✈ 720 miSame TZ
Away
33 25
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UNLV
37
Oregon State
22
P&R Line UNLV -15
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UNLV -6.5 · O/U 61.0
Matchup Prediction
UNLV has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
UNLV wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
UNLV wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UNLV -6.5
O/U 61.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UNLV · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 UNLV 2nd straight Road Game
UNLV 2024 Schedule
UNLV's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UNLV at Houston+3.0W27–756.0W27–7UY
Sat 9/7UNLV vs Utah Tech-41.5W72–1455.5W72–14OY
Fri 9/13UNLV vs Kansas+7.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UNLV vs Fresno State-2.5W59–1451.0W59–14OY
Fri 10/4UNLV vs Syracuse-5.5L41–4455.5L41–44ON
Fri 10/11UNLV at Utah State-19.0W50–3467.5W50–34ON
Sat 10/19UNLV at Oregon State-6.5W33–2561.0W33–25UY
Fri 10/25UNLV vs Boise State+4.0L24–2964.0L24–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9UNLV at Hawai'i-12.0W29–2751.5W29–27ON
Sat 11/16UNLV vs San Diego State-22.0W41–2055.5W41–20ON
Fri 11/22UNLV at San José State-7.5W27–1659.5W27–16UY
Sat 11/30UNLV vs Nevada-17.5W38–1454.5W38–14UY
Fri 12/6UNLV at Boise State+3.5L7–2157.5L7–21UN
Wed 12/18UNLV vs California-3.0W24–1345.0W24–13UY
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.5W38–1557.5W38–15UN
Sat 9/7Oregon State at San Diego State-5.5W21–054.5W21–0UY
Sat 9/14Oregon State vs Oregon+16.0L14–4950.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/21Oregon State vs Purdue-1.5W38–2151.0W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.0W39–3147.0W39–31ON
Sat 10/12Oregon State at Nevada-3.0L37–4247.0L37–42ON
Sat 10/19Oregon State vs UNLV+6.5L25–3361.0L25–33UN
Sat 10/26Oregon State at California+13.0L7–4451.0L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Oregon State vs San José State-3.0L13–2458.5L13–24UN
Sat 11/16Oregon State at Air Force-3.0L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/23Oregon State vs Washington State+11.0W41–3857.0W41–38OY
Fri 11/29Oregon State at Boise State+17.5L18–3458.5L18–34UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UNLV PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UNLV #56
+0.477
Oregon State #87
+0.273
UNLV Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UNLV #94
+0.506
Oregon State #125
+0.222
UNLV Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UNLV #27
0.185
Oregon State #115
0.134
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UNLV Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UNLV #33
+8.610
Oregon State #75
+7.921
UNLV Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UNLV #84
+0.897
Oregon State #59
+0.810
UNLV Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UNLV #3
65.3
Oregon State #134
75.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UNLV Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UNLV Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UNLV
2.0
Oregon State
-6.6
Offense Rating
UNLV
17.2
Oregon State
13.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UNLV
15.2
Oregon State
19.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UNLV #52
1.60
Oregon State #121
0.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UNLV #40
0.60
Oregon State #129
1.60
UNLV +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UNLV #1
68.3
Oregon State #1
51.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UNLV #12
19.1
Oregon State #109
33.3
UNLV +17.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UNLV with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
9–5 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brennan Marion Yr 2 #1
DC Michael Scherer Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself