Sam Houston at Oregon State Week 11 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Oregon State Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 8 2025 · Week 11 · 🏟 Reser Stadium Corvallis, OR · Turf · 45,674 cap
Sam Houston✈ 1,780 mi-2 hr TZ
21 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
16
Oregon State
36
P&R Line Oregon State -20.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Oregon State -21 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Oregon State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Oregon State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -21
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Oregon State 4th straight Home Game 🚌 Sam Houston 2nd straight Road Game
Sam Houston 2025 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.5L24–4160.5L24–41ON
Fri 8/29Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.5L21–3858.5L21–38ON
Sat 9/6Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.0L20–3747.5L20–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/20Sam Houston at Texas+39.5L0–5551.5L0–55ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/2Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.5L10–3753.5L10–37UN
Thu 10/9Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.0L27–2953.5L27–29OY
Wed 10/15Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.5L17–3546.5L17–35ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/31Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.5L14–5548.0L14–55ON
Sat 11/8Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.0W21–1752.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/15Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.5W26–2356.5W26–23UY
Sat 11/22Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.5L17–3153.5L17–31UN
Sat 11/29Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.5L16–5650.5L16–56ON
Oregon State 2025 Schedule
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Oregon State vs California-3.0L15–3451.5L15–34UN
Sat 9/6Oregon State vs Fresno State-1.0L27–3645.5L27–36ON
Sat 9/13Oregon State at Texas Tech+24.5L7–4561.5L7–45UN
Sat 9/20Oregon State at Oregon+33.5L7–4158.5L7–41UN
Fri 9/26Oregon State vs Houston+11.5L24–2748.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/4Oregon State at App State+1.5L23–2753.5L23–27UN
Sat 10/11Oregon State vs Wake Forest+1.5L14–3947.5L14–39ON
Sat 10/18Oregon State vs Lafayette-21.0W45–1356.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Oregon State vs Washington State+3.5W10–747.5W10–7UY
Sat 11/8Oregon State vs Sam Houston-21.0L17–2152.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Oregon State at Tulsa+1.5L14–3150.5L14–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Oregon State at Washington State+14.0L8–3242.5L8–32UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Oregon State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #131
+0.189
Oregon State #124
+0.266
Oregon State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #133
+0.316
Oregon State #123
+0.472
Oregon State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #100
0.144
Oregon State #36
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Oregon State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+6.194
Oregon State #128
+6.745
Oregon State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #120
+0.752
Oregon State #68
+0.902
Oregon State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #124
73.2
Oregon State #89
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Oregon State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oregon State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
Oregon State
-6.6
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Oregon State
13.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
Oregon State
19.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Oregon State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #104
0.13
Oregon State #85
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #131
2.25
Oregon State #100
1.13
Oregon State +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oregon State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
10.9
Oregon State #1
22.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #135
76.2
Oregon State #128
60.5
Oregon State +11.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon State
68.3 — 17.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Sam Houston won by 4
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Oregon State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
Phil Longo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zack Patterson Yr 1 #1
DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 2 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself