Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
·
Turf
·
45,674 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon -16
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon 2024 Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oregon vs Idaho | -31.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Oregon vs Boise State | -17.5W37–34 | 60.5 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oregon at Oregon State | -16.0W49–14 | 50.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Oregon at UCLA | -23.5W34–13 | 54.5 | W34–13 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Oregon vs Michigan State | -22.5W31–10 | 53.0 | W31–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Oregon vs Ohio State | +3.5W32–31 | 54.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Oregon at Purdue | -30.0W35–0 | 61.0 | W35–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Oregon vs Illinois | -22.5W38–9 | 54.0 | W38–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Oregon at Michigan | -14.5W38–17 | 45.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Oregon vs Maryland | -24.0W39–18 | 58.0 | W39–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Oregon at Wisconsin | -13.5W16–13 | 49.5 | W16–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Oregon vs Washington | -17.5W49–21 | 50.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Oregon vs Penn State | -3.5W45–37 | 51.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Oregon vs Ohio State | +2.5L21–41 | 55.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oregon State vs Idaho State | -29.5W38–15 | 57.5 | W38–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Oregon State at San Diego State | -5.5W21–0 | 54.5 | W21–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Oregon State vs Oregon | +16.0L14–49 | 50.0 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Oregon State vs Purdue | -1.5W38–21 | 51.0 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Oregon State vs Colorado State | -10.0W39–31 | 47.0 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Oregon State at Nevada | -3.0L37–42 | 47.0 | L37–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Oregon State vs UNLV | +6.5L25–33 | 61.0 | L25–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Oregon State at California | +13.0L7–44 | 51.0 | L7–44 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Oregon State vs San José State | -3.0L13–24 | 58.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Oregon State at Air Force | -3.0L0–28 | 44.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Oregon State vs Washington State | +11.0W41–38 | 57.0 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Oregon State at Boise State | +17.5L18–34 | 58.5 | L18–34 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +15.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
22–5 (82%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Junior Adams
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 3
#1
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Ryan Gunderson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Keith Heyward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓