Sat, Nov 6 2021
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Folsom Field
Boulder, CO
·
Turf
·
50,183 cap
Oregon State✈ 970 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oregon State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -11.5
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2021 Schedule
Oregon State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oregon State at Purdue | +7.0L21–30 | 67.0 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oregon State vs Hawai'i | -11.0W45–27 | 65.0 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Oregon State vs Idaho | -28.0W42–0 | 63.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Oregon State at USC | +11.0W45–27 | 62.5 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Oregon State vs Washington | -2.5W27–24 | 57.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Oregon State at Washington State | -4.0L24–31 | 59.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Oregon State vs Utah | +3.0W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oregon State at California | -2.5L25–39 | 56.5 | L25–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Oregon State at Colorado | -11.5L34–37 | 55.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Oregon State vs Stanford | -12.5W35–14 | 56.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oregon State vs Arizona State | +2.5W24–10 | 59.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Oregon State at Oregon | +7.5L29–38 | 61.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Oregon State vs Utah State | -7.0L13–24 | 68.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Colorado 2021 Schedule
Colorado's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Colorado vs Northern Colorado | -37.5W35–7 | 56.5 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Colorado vs Texas A&M | +17.5L7–10 | 51.0 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Colorado vs Minnesota | -2.5L0–30 | 49.0 | L0–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Colorado at Arizona State | +13.5L13–35 | 45.5 | L13–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Colorado vs USC | +9.0L14–37 | 50.5 | L14–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Colorado vs Arizona | -6.0W34–0 | 46.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Colorado at California | +8.0L3–26 | 44.0 | L3–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Colorado at Oregon | +24.5L29–52 | 49.0 | L29–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Colorado vs Oregon State | +11.5W37–34 | 55.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Colorado at UCLA | +18.0L20–44 | 57.5 | L20–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Colorado vs Washington | +6.5W20–17 | 43.0 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Colorado at Utah | +24.0L13–28 | 52.5 | L13–28 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +20.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oregon State
35.8 — 36.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Colorado won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 1
#1
Colorado
Karl Dorrell #1
5–4 (56%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Darrin Chiaverini
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chris Wilson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓