Oregon State at Air Force Week 12 College Football Matchup Oregon State at Air Force Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
Oregon State✈ 1,021 mi+1 hr TZ
0 28
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oregon State
24
Air Force
20
P&R Line Oregon State -4
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Oregon State -3 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Air Force, while Game Control favors Oregon State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Air Force wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -3
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Air Force 2nd straight Home Game
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.5W38–1557.5W38–15UN
Sat 9/7Oregon State at San Diego State-5.5W21–054.5W21–0UY
Sat 9/14Oregon State vs Oregon+16.0L14–4950.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/21Oregon State vs Purdue-1.5W38–2151.0W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.0W39–3147.0W39–31ON
Sat 10/12Oregon State at Nevada-3.0L37–4247.0L37–42ON
Sat 10/19Oregon State vs UNLV+6.5L25–3361.0L25–33UN
Sat 10/26Oregon State at California+13.0L7–4451.0L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Oregon State vs San José State-3.0L13–2458.5L13–24UN
Sat 11/16Oregon State at Air Force-3.0L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/23Oregon State vs Washington State+11.0W41–3857.0W41–38OY
Fri 11/29Oregon State at Boise State+17.5L18–3458.5L18–34UY
Air Force 2024 Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Air Force vs Merrimack-30.5W21–647.5W21–6UN
Sat 9/7Air Force vs San José State-1.5L7–1743.5L7–17UN
Sat 9/14Air Force at Baylor+17.5L3–3140.5L3–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Air Force at Wyoming-4.0L19–3133.5L19–31ON
Sat 10/5Air Force vs Navy+10.0L7–3437.0L7–34ON
Sat 10/12Air Force at New Mexico+7.0L37–5256.0L37–52ON
Sat 10/19Air Force vs Colorado State+6.0L13–2143.5L13–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Air Force at Army+18.0L3–2038.5L3–20UY
Sat 11/9Air Force vs Fresno State+9.5W36–2840.5W36–28OY
Sat 11/16Air Force vs Oregon State+3.0W28–044.5W28–0UY
Sat 11/23Air Force at Nevada+3.0W22–1944.5W22–19UY
Sat 11/30Air Force at San Diego State-6.5W31–2043.5W31–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Air Force PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oregon State #87
+0.360
Air Force #103
+0.397
Air Force Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #125
+0.422
Air Force #124
+0.402
Oregon State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oregon State #115
0.134
Air Force #86
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Air Force Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #75
+7.840
Air Force #56
+8.367
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oregon State #59
+0.853
Air Force #77
+0.901
Air Force Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oregon State #134
75.1
Air Force #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oregon State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oregon State
-6.6
Air Force
-8.3
Offense Rating
Oregon State
13.0
Air Force
8.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oregon State
19.5
Air Force
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Air Force Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oregon State #121
0.25
Air Force #82
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #129
2.13
Air Force #69
1.25
Air Force +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oregon State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oregon State #1
40.2
Air Force #1
20.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #109
42.6
Air Force #110
62.5
Oregon State +19.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Air Force
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Air Force
85.3 — 7.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Air Force won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
130–82 (61%) · Yr 18 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself