Sun, Sep 4 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
·
Turf
·
45,674 cap
Boise State✈ 357 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -2
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Oregon State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boise State 2022 Schedule
Boise State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Boise State at Oregon State | +2.0L17–34 | 55.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Boise State at New Mexico | -17.0W31–14 | 43.5 | W31–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Boise State vs UT Martin | -24.5W30–7 | 53.5 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Boise State at UTEP | -16.0L10–27 | 44.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/30 | Boise State vs San Diego State | -6.0W35–13 | 38.0 | W35–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -9.0W40–20 | 45.0 | W40–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Boise State at Air Force | +2.5W19–14 | 46.5 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Boise State vs Colorado State | -25.0W49–10 | 42.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Boise State vs BYU | -9.5L28–31 | 54.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Boise State at Nevada | -21.0W41–3 | 47.0 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Boise State at Wyoming | -14.5W20–17 | 44.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Boise State vs Utah State | -17.0W42–23 | 51.5 | W42–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -3.0L16–28 | 54.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Boise State vs North Texas | -12.0W35–32 | 63.0 | W35–32 | O | N |
Oregon State 2022 Schedule
Oregon State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Oregon State vs Boise State | -2.0W34–17 | 55.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Oregon State at Fresno State | +1.0W35–32 | 59.0 | W35–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Oregon State vs Montana State | -16.5W68–28 | 56.5 | W68–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Oregon State vs USC | +5.5L14–17 | 70.5 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Oregon State at Utah | +10.5L16–42 | 54.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Oregon State at Stanford | -4.5W28–27 | 53.0 | W28–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Oregon State vs Washington State | -3.0W24–10 | 51.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Oregon State vs Colorado | -23.0W42–9 | 47.5 | W42–9 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/4 | Oregon State at Washington | +4.5L21–24 | 53.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Oregon State vs California | -11.5W38–10 | 47.0 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Oregon State at Arizona State | -7.5W31–7 | 53.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Oregon State vs Oregon | -1.0W38–34 | 57.0 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Oregon State vs Florida | -7.5W30–3 | 52.0 | W30–3 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boise State Edge
Boise State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oregon State
86.0 — 5.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Oregon State won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Plough
Yr 2
#1
DC
Spencer Danielson
Yr 2
#1
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
16–28 (36%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 2
#1
DC
Trent Bray
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓