Sun, Nov 5 2023
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Folsom Field
Boulder, CO
·
Turf
·
50,183 cap
Oregon State✈ 970 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Colorado,
while Game Control favors Oregon State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Colorado wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -13.0
O/U 60.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2023 Schedule
Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Oregon State at San José State | -14.0W42–17 | 56.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Oregon State vs UC Davis | -24.0W55–7 | 57.0 | W55–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Oregon State vs San Diego State | -24.5W26–9 | 48.5 | W26–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Oregon State at Washington State | -3.0L35–38 | 58.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Fri 9/29 | Oregon State vs Utah | -4.0W21–7 | 43.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Oregon State at California | -7.5W52–40 | 51.0 | W52–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Oregon State vs UCLA | -3.5W36–24 | 53.5 | W36–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Oregon State at Arizona | -3.0L24–27 | 57.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Oregon State at Colorado | -13.0W26–19 | 60.5 | W26–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Oregon State vs Stanford | -21.5W62–17 | 51.5 | W62–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Oregon State vs Washington | -1.5L20–22 | 62.5 | L20–22 | U | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Oregon State at Oregon | +14.0L7–31 | 61.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 12/29 | Oregon State vs Notre Dame | +5.5L8–40 | 40.5 | L8–40 | O | N |
Colorado 2023 Schedule
Colorado's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Colorado at TCU | +20.5W45–42 | 59.5 | W45–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Colorado vs Nebraska | -2.5W36–14 | 56.5 | W36–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Colorado vs Colorado State | -23.0W43–35 | 63.0 | W43–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Colorado at Oregon | +21.0L6–42 | 70.0 | L6–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Colorado vs USC | +22.0L41–48 | 74.5 | L41–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Colorado at Arizona State | -3.0W27–24 | 58.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/13 | Colorado vs Stanford | -13.0L43–46 | 59.0 | L43–46 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Colorado at UCLA | +14.0L16–28 | 60.0 | L16–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Colorado vs Oregon State | +13.0L19–26 | 60.5 | L19–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Colorado vs Arizona | +6.0L31–34 | 55.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/17 | Colorado at Washington State | +4.5L14–56 | 59.5 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Colorado at Utah | +21.5L17–23 | 43.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Colorado Edge
Colorado +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +35.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
29–31 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 3
#1
DC
Trent Bray
Yr 2
#1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Charles Kelly
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓