Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,232 cap
Oregon State✈ 979 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oregon State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Oregon State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -7.5
O/U 53.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2022 Schedule
Oregon State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Oregon State vs Boise State | -2.0W34–17 | 55.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Oregon State at Fresno State | +1.0W35–32 | 59.0 | W35–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Oregon State vs Montana State | -16.5W68–28 | 56.5 | W68–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Oregon State vs USC | +5.5L14–17 | 70.5 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Oregon State at Utah | +10.5L16–42 | 54.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Oregon State at Stanford | -4.5W28–27 | 53.0 | W28–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Oregon State vs Washington State | -3.0W24–10 | 51.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Oregon State vs Colorado | -23.0W42–9 | 47.5 | W42–9 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/4 | Oregon State at Washington | +4.5L21–24 | 53.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Oregon State vs California | -11.5W38–10 | 47.0 | W38–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Oregon State at Arizona State | -7.5W31–7 | 53.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Oregon State vs Oregon | -1.0W38–34 | 57.0 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Oregon State vs Florida | -7.5W30–3 | 52.0 | W30–3 | U | Y |
Arizona State 2022 Schedule
Arizona State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Arizona State vs Northern Arizona | -25.5W40–3 | 52.5 | W40–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arizona State at Oklahoma State | +12.0L17–34 | 58.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Arizona State vs Eastern Michigan | -20.5L21–30 | 56.5 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Arizona State vs Utah | +16.5L13–34 | 54.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arizona State at USC | +24.5L25–42 | 61.0 | L25–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arizona State vs Washington | +13.5W45–38 | 56.0 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Arizona State at Stanford | +3.0L14–15 | 52.0 | L14–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Arizona State at Colorado | -13.0W42–34 | 49.0 | W42–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Arizona State vs UCLA | +11.0L36–50 | 66.5 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arizona State at Washington State | +9.5L18–28 | 59.5 | L18–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arizona State vs Oregon State | +7.5L7–31 | 53.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Arizona State at Arizona | +4.0L35–38 | 66.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +25.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
16–28 (36%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 2
#1
DC
Trent Bray
Yr 1
#1
Arizona State
Herm Edwards #1
25–18 (58%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Glenn Thomas
Yr 1
#1
DC
Donnie Henderson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓