Wake Forest at Oregon State Week 7 College Football Matchup Wake Forest at Oregon State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 11 2025 · Week 7 · 🏟 Reser Stadium Corvallis, OR · Turf · 45,674 cap
Wake Forest✈ 2,310 mi-3 hr TZ
39 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wake Forest
31
WAKE -1.5
Oregon State
18
P&R Line Wake Forest -13
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Wake Forest -1.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -1.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Wake Forest · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Wake Forest 2nd straight Road Game
Wake Forest 2025 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.5W10–951.5W10–9UN
Sat 9/6Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.5W42–1060.5W42–10UY
Thu 9/11Wake Forest vs NC State+7.5L24–3452.5L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/27Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.5L29–3053.5L29–30OY
Sat 10/4Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.5W30–2351.5W30–23OY
Sat 10/11Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.5W39–1447.5W39–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/25Wake Forest vs SMU+6.5W13–1253.5W13–12UY
Sat 11/1Wake Forest at Florida State+12.5L7–4250.5L7–42UN
Sat 11/8Wake Forest at Virginia+7.0W16–948.5W16–9UY
Sat 11/15Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.5W28–1237.5W28–12OY
Sat 11/22Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.5W52–1449.5W52–14OY
Sat 11/29Wake Forest at Duke+2.5L32–4954.0L32–49ON
Fri 1/2Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.0W43–2952.5W43–29OY
Oregon State 2025 Schedule
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Oregon State vs California-3.0L15–3451.5L15–34UN
Sat 9/6Oregon State vs Fresno State-1.0L27–3645.5L27–36ON
Sat 9/13Oregon State at Texas Tech+24.5L7–4561.5L7–45UN
Sat 9/20Oregon State at Oregon+33.5L7–4158.5L7–41UN
Fri 9/26Oregon State vs Houston+11.5L24–2748.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/4Oregon State at App State+1.5L23–2753.5L23–27UN
Sat 10/11Oregon State vs Wake Forest+1.5L14–3947.5L14–39ON
Sat 10/18Oregon State vs Lafayette-21.0W45–1356.5W45–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/1Oregon State vs Washington State+3.5W10–747.5W10–7UY
Sat 11/8Oregon State vs Sam Houston-21.0L17–2152.5L17–21UN
Sat 11/15Oregon State at Tulsa+1.5L14–3150.5L14–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/29Oregon State at Washington State+14.0L8–3242.5L8–32UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Wake Forest PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wake Forest #82
+0.328
Oregon State #124
+0.076
Wake Forest Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #69
+0.555
Oregon State #123
+0.215
Wake Forest Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #21
0.182
Oregon State #36
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wake Forest Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wake Forest #113
+6.638
Oregon State #128
+6.130
Wake Forest Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wake Forest #112
+0.767
Oregon State #68
+0.774
Oregon State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wake Forest #30
69.3
Oregon State #89
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wake Forest Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Wake Forest Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wake Forest
4.6
Oregon State
-6.6
Offense Rating
Wake Forest
16.6
Oregon State
13.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wake Forest
12.0
Oregon State
19.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wake Forest Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wake Forest #42
1.50
Oregon State #85
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #40
1.00
Oregon State #100
1.50
Wake Forest +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wake Forest Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wake Forest #1
64.5
Oregon State #1
19.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wake Forest #20
17.7
Oregon State #128
67.4
Wake Forest +44.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rob Ezell Yr 1 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 2 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself