Oregon State at San Diego State Week 2 College Football Matchup Oregon State at San Diego State Matchup - Week 2
Sun, Sep 8 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Snapdragon Stadium San Diego, CA · Turf · 35,000 cap
Oregon State✈ 878 miSame TZ
21 0
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oregon State
29
San Diego State
25
P&R Line Oregon State -4.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Oregon State -5.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Oregon State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -5.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San Diego State 2nd straight Home Game
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.5W38–1557.5W38–15UN
Sat 9/7Oregon State at San Diego State-5.5W21–054.5W21–0UY
Sat 9/14Oregon State vs Oregon+16.0L14–4950.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/21Oregon State vs Purdue-1.5W38–2151.0W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.0W39–3147.0W39–31ON
Sat 10/12Oregon State at Nevada-3.0L37–4247.0L37–42ON
Sat 10/19Oregon State vs UNLV+6.5L25–3361.0L25–33UN
Sat 10/26Oregon State at California+13.0L7–4451.0L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Oregon State vs San José State-3.0L13–2458.5L13–24UN
Sat 11/16Oregon State at Air Force-3.0L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/23Oregon State vs Washington State+11.0W41–3857.0W41–38OY
Fri 11/29Oregon State at Boise State+17.5L18–3458.5L18–34UY
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Oregon State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oregon State #87
+0.391
San Diego State #108
+0.388
Oregon State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #125
+0.375
San Diego State #107
+0.462
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oregon State #115
0.134
San Diego State #131
0.119
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Oregon State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #75
+8.149
San Diego State #107
+7.792
Oregon State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oregon State #59
+0.897
San Diego State #120
+0.854
Oregon State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oregon State #134
75.1
San Diego State #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oregon State
-6.6
San Diego State
3.6
Offense Rating
Oregon State
13.0
San Diego State
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oregon State
19.5
San Diego State
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Oregon State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oregon State #121
0.00
San Diego State #77
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #129
0.00
San Diego State #86
0.00
Oregon State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oregon State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oregon State #1
62.1
San Diego State #1
54.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #109
12.7
San Diego State #114
15.6
Oregon State +7.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself