Sun, Sep 12 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
·
Turf
·
45,674 cap
Hawai'i✈ 2,536 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Hawai'i wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -11
O/U 65.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Oregon State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Hawai'i 2021 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | Hawai'i at UCLA | +17.5L10–44 | 67.0 | L10–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | Hawai'i vs Portland State | -26.0W49–35 | 57.5 | W49–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Hawai'i at Oregon State | +11.0L27–45 | 65.0 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sun 9/19 | Hawai'i vs San José State | +8.0L13–17 | 62.5 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Hawai'i at New Mexico State | -17.0W41–21 | 63.0 | W41–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Hawai'i vs Fresno State | +10.5W27–24 | 64.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Hawai'i at Nevada | +14.0L17–34 | 61.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico State | -18.0W48–34 | 62.5 | W48–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Hawai'i at Utah State | +3.5L31–51 | 66.0 | L31–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +7.0L10–17 | 45.0 | L10–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Hawai'i at UNLV | -3.5L13–27 | 55.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Hawai'i vs Colorado State | +3.0W50–45 | 54.0 | W50–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Hawai'i at Wyoming | +13.0W38–14 | 48.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/24 | Hawai'i vs Memphis | +10.0 | 56.0 | — | — | — |
Oregon State 2021 Schedule
Oregon State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oregon State at Purdue | +7.0L21–30 | 67.0 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oregon State vs Hawai'i | -11.0W45–27 | 65.0 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Oregon State vs Idaho | -28.0W42–0 | 63.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Oregon State at USC | +11.0W45–27 | 62.5 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Oregon State vs Washington | -2.5W27–24 | 57.5 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Oregon State at Washington State | -4.0L24–31 | 59.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Oregon State vs Utah | +3.0W42–34 | 57.5 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oregon State at California | -2.5L25–39 | 56.5 | L25–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Oregon State at Colorado | -11.5L34–37 | 55.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Oregon State vs Stanford | -12.5W35–14 | 56.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oregon State vs Arizona State | +2.5W24–10 | 59.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Oregon State at Oregon | +7.5L29–38 | 61.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Oregon State vs Utah State | -7.0L13–24 | 68.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hawai'i +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +31.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon State
2 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Oregon State
96.7 — 2.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Oregon State won by 18
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Todd Graham #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bo Graham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Graham
Yr 1
#1
Oregon State
Jonathan Smith #1
11–23 (32%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓