Sat, Sep 20 2025
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Oregon wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Oregon wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Oregon -33.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon State 2025 Schedule
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Oregon State vs California | -3.0L15–34 | 51.5 | L15–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Oregon State vs Fresno State | -1.0L27–36 | 45.5 | L27–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Oregon State at Texas Tech | +24.5L7–45 | 61.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Oregon State at Oregon | +33.5L7–41 | 58.5 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Fri 9/26 | Oregon State vs Houston | +11.5L24–27 | 48.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Oregon State at App State | +1.5L23–27 | 53.5 | L23–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Oregon State vs Wake Forest | +1.5L14–39 | 47.5 | L14–39 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oregon State vs Lafayette | -21.0W45–13 | 56.5 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Oregon State vs Washington State | +3.5W10–7 | 47.5 | W10–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Oregon State vs Sam Houston | -21.0L17–21 | 52.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Oregon State at Tulsa | +1.5L14–31 | 50.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Oregon State at Washington State | +14.0L8–32 | 42.5 | L8–32 | U | N |
Oregon 2025 Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Oregon vs Montana State | -28.0W59–13 | 56.5 | W59–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Oregon vs Oklahoma State | -28.5W69–3 | 55.5 | W69–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Oregon at Northwestern | -25.5W34–14 | 50.5 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -33.5W41–7 | 58.5 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Oregon at Penn State | +4.5W30–24 | 52.5 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/11 | Oregon vs Indiana | -7.0L20–30 | 51.5 | L20–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Oregon at Rutgers | -17.5W56–10 | 62.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Oregon vs Wisconsin | -31.5W21–7 | 44.5 | W21–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/8 | Oregon at Iowa | -4.5W18–16 | 41.5 | W18–16 | U | N |
| Fri 11/14 | Oregon vs Minnesota | -26.5W42–13 | 45.5 | W42–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Oregon vs USC | -10.5W42–27 | 59.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Oregon at Washington | -6.5W26–14 | 51.5 | W26–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/20 | Oregon vs James Madison | -22.5W51–34 | 47.5 | W51–34 | O | N |
| Thu 1/1 | Oregon vs Texas Tech | +1.5W23–0 | 50.5 | W23–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 1/9 | Oregon vs Indiana | +3.0L22–56 | 50.5 | L22–56 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +80.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon
82.6 — 6.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 34
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Gunderson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Keith Heyward
Yr 2
#1
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
35–5 (88%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Will Stein
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓