Oregon State at California Week 9 College Football Matchup Oregon State at California Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 California Memorial Stadium Berkeley, CA · Turf · 62,717 cap
Oregon State✈ 465 miSame TZ
7 44
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oregon State
17
California
34
P&R Line California -17.5
P&R Total O/U 50.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas California -13.0 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors California, while Game Control favors Oregon State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
California wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Oregon State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
California -13.0
O/U 51.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → California · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 California 2nd straight Home Game
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.5W38–1557.5W38–15UN
Sat 9/7Oregon State at San Diego State-5.5W21–054.5W21–0UY
Sat 9/14Oregon State vs Oregon+16.0L14–4950.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/21Oregon State vs Purdue-1.5W38–2151.0W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.0W39–3147.0W39–31ON
Sat 10/12Oregon State at Nevada-3.0L37–4247.0L37–42ON
Sat 10/19Oregon State vs UNLV+6.5L25–3361.0L25–33UN
Sat 10/26Oregon State at California+13.0L7–4451.0L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Oregon State vs San José State-3.0L13–2458.5L13–24UN
Sat 11/16Oregon State at Air Force-3.0L0–2844.5L0–28UN
Sat 11/23Oregon State vs Washington State+11.0W41–3857.0W41–38OY
Fri 11/29Oregon State at Boise State+17.5L18–3458.5L18–34UY
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31California vs UC Davis-20.5W31–1356.5W31–13UN
Sat 9/7California at Auburn+11.5W21–1452.5W21–14UY
Sat 9/14California vs San Diego State-18.5W31–1048.5W31–10UY
Sat 9/21California at Florida State+3.0L9–1444.0L9–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5California vs Miami+10.0L38–3954.0L38–39OY
Sat 10/12California at Pittsburgh+3.5L15–1757.5L15–17UY
Sat 10/19California vs NC State-9.5L23–2446.0L23–24ON
Sat 10/26California vs Oregon State-13.0W44–751.0W44–7UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/8California at Wake Forest-7.5W46–3654.5W46–36OY
Sat 11/16California vs Syracuse-10.5L25–3358.0L25–33UN
Sat 11/23California vs Stanford-15.0W24–2153.5W24–21UN
Sat 11/30California at SMU+11.5L6–3854.5L6–38UN
Wed 12/18California vs UNLV+3.0L13–2445.0L13–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
California PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ California
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oregon State #87
+0.296
California #79
+0.435
California Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #125
+0.300
California #72
+0.559
California Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oregon State #115
0.134
California #42
0.178
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
California Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oregon State #75
+7.100
California #125
+7.417
California Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oregon State #59
+0.840
California #88
+0.896
California Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oregon State #134
75.1
California #59
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
California Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
California Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oregon State
-6.6
California
5.3
Offense Rating
Oregon State
13.0
California
19.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oregon State
19.5
California
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? California Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oregon State #121
0.17
California #71
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #129
1.67
California #89
0.67
California +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oregon State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oregon State #1
47.6
California #1
45.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oregon State #109
35.3
California #81
31.0
Oregon State +2.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
California
6 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
California
92.2 — 4.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
California won by 37
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oregon State
Trent Bray #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Ryan Gunderson Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Heyward Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Peter Sirmon Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself