Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Reser Stadium
Corvallis, OR
·
Turf
·
45,674 cap
Idaho State✈ 554 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Oregon State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Oregon State -29.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Idaho State 2024 Schedule
Idaho State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Idaho State at Oregon State | +29.5L15–38 | 57.5 | L15–38 | U | Y |
Oregon State 2024 Schedule
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oregon State vs Idaho State | -29.5W38–15 | 57.5 | W38–15 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Oregon State at San Diego State | -5.5W21–0 | 54.5 | W21–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Oregon State vs Oregon | +16.0L14–49 | 50.0 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Oregon State vs Purdue | -1.5W38–21 | 51.0 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Oregon State vs Colorado State | -10.0W39–31 | 47.0 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Oregon State at Nevada | -3.0L37–42 | 47.0 | L37–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Oregon State vs UNLV | +6.5L25–33 | 61.0 | L25–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Oregon State at California | +13.0L7–44 | 51.0 | L7–44 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Oregon State vs San José State | -3.0L13–24 | 58.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Oregon State at Air Force | -3.0L0–28 | 44.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Oregon State vs Washington State | +11.0W41–38 | 57.0 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Oregon State at Boise State | +17.5L18–34 | 58.5 | L18–34 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho State Edge
Idaho State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon State Edge
Oregon State +47.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓