Arizona State at Texas Tech Week 4 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Arizona State✈ 579 mi+2 hr TZ
22 30
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
34
ASU +4.5
Texas Tech
27
P&R Line Arizona State -7
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -4.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas Tech, while Game Control favors Arizona State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -4.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas Tech 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Arizona State 2nd straight Road Game
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #13
+0.542
Texas Tech #33
+0.365
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #14
+0.721
Texas Tech #44
+0.526
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #75
0.156
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #48
+8.107
Texas Tech #7
+8.369
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #8
+0.934
Texas Tech #50
+0.866
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #78
71.4
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Texas Tech
1.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #47
1.67
Texas Tech #9
2.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #19
0.33
Texas Tech #63
0.50
Texas Tech +0.83
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
71.0
Texas Tech #1
55.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #28
12.9
Texas Tech #46
32.0
Arizona State +15.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
88.0 — 8.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself