Wyoming at Arizona State Week 1 College Football Matchup Wyoming at Arizona State Matchup - Week 1
Sun, Sep 1 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ · Turf · 56,232 cap
Wyoming✈ 646 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
7 48
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wyoming
10
Arizona State
39
P&R Line Arizona State -29
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Arizona State -6.5 · O/U 47.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -6.5
O/U 47.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Wyoming at Arizona State+6.5L7–4847.0L7–48ON
Sat 9/7Wyoming vs Idaho-6.5L13–1739.5L13–17UN
Sat 9/14Wyoming vs BYU+9.5L14–3440.5L14–34ON
Sat 9/21Wyoming at North Texas+7.0L17–4455.0L17–44ON
Sat 9/28Wyoming vs Air Force+4.0W31–1933.5W31–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Wyoming vs San Diego State-1.5L24–2743.0L24–27ON
Sat 10/19Wyoming at San José State+13.0L14–2453.0L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Wyoming vs Utah State+2.5L25–2757.0L25–27UY
Sat 11/2Wyoming at New Mexico+7.5W49–4560.5W49–45OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Wyoming at Colorado State+8.5L10–2447.5L10–24UN
Sat 11/23Wyoming vs Boise State+22.0L13–1754.0L13–17UY
Sat 11/30Wyoming at Washington State+18.5W15–1455.5W15–14UY
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wyoming #127
+0.168
Arizona State #13
+0.541
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wyoming #126
+0.292
Arizona State #14
+0.641
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wyoming #92
0.145
Arizona State #75
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wyoming #126
+6.713
Arizona State #48
+8.111
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wyoming #126
+0.788
Arizona State #8
+0.938
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wyoming #92
72.0
Arizona State #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wyoming
-10.7
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
Wyoming
13.3
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wyoming
24.0
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wyoming Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Wyoming #131
0.00
Arizona State #47
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wyoming #42
0.00
Arizona State #19
0.00
Wyoming +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Wyoming Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wyoming #1
0.0
Arizona State #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wyoming #128
0.0
Arizona State #28
0.0
Wyoming +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona State
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona State
94.9 — 3.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arizona State won by 41
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Aaron Bohl Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself