Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Week 13 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Texas Tech✈ 323 miSame TZ
56 48
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
33
OKST +5
Oklahoma State
32
P&R Line Texas Tech -1.5
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -5 · O/U 63.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -5
O/U 63.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Oklahoma State Coming off BYE 🛋 Texas Tech Coming off BYE
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.5W44–2054.0W44–20OY
Sat 9/7Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.5W39–3160.5W39–31ON
Sat 9/14Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/21Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.0L19–2253.5L19–22UN
Sat 9/28Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.0L20–4258.0L20–42ON
Sat 10/5Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.5L14–3865.0L14–38UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Oklahoma State at BYU+8.5L35–3853.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/26Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.0L28–3864.5L28–38ON
Sat 11/2Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.0L21–4257.0L21–42ON
Sat 11/9Oklahoma State at TCU+10.5L13–3868.5L13–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.0L48–5663.5L48–56ON
Fri 11/29Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.5L0–5266.5L0–52UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #33
+0.583
Oklahoma State #52
+0.445
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #44
+0.684
Oklahoma State #30
+0.674
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #123
0.125
Oklahoma State #89
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Oklahoma State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #7
+8.655
Oklahoma State #42
+8.184
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
+0.898
Oklahoma State #63
+0.868
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Oklahoma State #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Oklahoma State
4.7
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.2
Oklahoma State
15.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #9
1.56
Oklahoma State #94
0.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #63
1.33
Oklahoma State #101
1.56
Texas Tech +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
53.2
Oklahoma State #1
27.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #46
32.3
Oklahoma State #124
53.9
Texas Tech +25.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%) · Yr 20 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Bryan Nardo Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself