BYU at Arizona State Week 13 College Football Matchup BYU at Arizona State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ · Turf · 56,232 cap
BYU✈ 472 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
23 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
BYU
25
Arizona State
27
P&R Line Arizona State -2
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arizona State -3.5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
BYU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor BYU entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
BYU wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
BYU wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -3.5
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
BYU 2024 Schedule
BYU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31BYU vs Southern Illinois-29
Fri 9/6BYU at SMU+12.5W18–1555.5W18–15UY
Sat 9/14BYU at Wyoming-9.5W34–1440.5W34–14OY
Sat 9/21BYU vs Kansas State+7.5W38–949.5W38–9UY
Sat 9/28BYU at Baylor+3.0W34–2847.0W34–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12BYU vs Arizona-3.0W41–1948.5W41–19OY
Fri 10/18BYU vs Oklahoma State-8.5W38–3553.0W38–35ON
Sat 10/26BYU at UCF+2.5W37–2453.5W37–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9BYU at Utah-3.5W22–2140.5W22–21ON
Sat 11/16BYU vs Kansas-3.0L13–1755.5L13–17UN
Sat 11/23BYU at Arizona State+3.5L23–2849.0L23–28ON
Sat 11/30BYU vs Houston-9.5W30–1839.5W30–18OY
Sat 12/28BYU vs Colorado+3.0W36–1455.5W36–14UY
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
BYU #51
+0.339
Arizona State #13
+0.440
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
BYU #60
+0.482
Arizona State #14
+0.509
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
BYU #49
0.174
Arizona State #75
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
BYU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
BYU #88
+7.374
Arizona State #48
+7.930
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
BYU #44
+0.871
Arizona State #8
+0.912
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
BYU #13
68.3
Arizona State #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
BYU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
BYU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
BYU
14.4
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
BYU
21.4
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
BYU
7.0
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? BYU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
BYU #22
1.11
Arizona State #47
0.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
BYU #3
0.44
Arizona State #19
0.90
BYU +0.21
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? BYU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
BYU #1
57.7
Arizona State #1
50.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
BYU #20
25.0
Arizona State #28
31.8
BYU +7.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on BYU. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
BYU
Kalani Sitake #1
61–41 (60%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Aaron Roderick Yr 3 #1
DC Jay Hill Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself