Texas Tech at Arkansas Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Arkansas Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 28 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TN · Turf · 62,380 cap
Texas Tech✈ 686 miSame TZ Arkansas✈ 244 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
26 39
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
26
Arkansas
33
P&R Line Arkansas -7.5
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -3.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -3.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Arkansas 2024 Schedule
Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-50.5W70–060.5W70–0OY
Sat 9/7Arkansas at Oklahoma State+10.5L31–3960.5L31–39OY
Sat 9/14Arkansas vs UAB-23.5W37–2760.5W37–27ON
Sat 9/21Arkansas at Auburn+2.5W24–1453.5W24–14UY
Sat 9/28Arkansas vs Texas A&M+6.5L17–2150.5L17–21UY
Sat 10/5Arkansas vs Tennessee+14.0W19–1457.5W19–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Arkansas vs LSU+3.0L10–3457.0L10–34UN
Sat 10/26Arkansas at Mississippi State-7.5W58–2555.0W58–25OY
Sat 11/2Arkansas vs Ole Miss+8.0L31–6354.0L31–63ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Arkansas vs Texas+13.0L10–2057.5L10–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech-23.5W35–1448.5W35–14ON
Sat 11/30Arkansas at Missouri+3.5L21–2851.5L21–28UN
Fri 12/27Arkansas vs Texas Tech+3.5W39–2652.5W39–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arkansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #33
+0.377
Arkansas #27
+0.482
Arkansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #44
+0.594
Arkansas #46
+0.631
Arkansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #123
0.125
Arkansas #101
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arkansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #7
+8.037
Arkansas #64
+7.920
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
+0.857
Arkansas #13
+0.919
Arkansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Arkansas #108
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Arkansas
-2.3
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Arkansas
14.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Arkansas
17.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #9
1.82
Arkansas #69
1.18
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #63
1.09
Arkansas #85
1.36
Texas Tech +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
57.0
Arkansas #1
44.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #46
28.4
Arkansas #57
37.1
Texas Tech +12.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas
86.3 — 7.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 13
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
23–25 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Bobby Petrino Yr 1 #1
DC Travis Williams Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself