Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, TX
·
Turf
·
60,862 cap
Baylor✈ 310 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -4.5
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Baylor
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Baylor 2024 Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Baylor vs Tarleton State | -33.5W45–3 | 53.5 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Baylor at Utah | +14.5L12–23 | 52.5 | L12–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Baylor vs Air Force | -17.5W31–3 | 40.5 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Baylor at Colorado | +2.5L31–38 | 52.5 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Baylor vs BYU | -3.0L28–34 | 47.0 | L28–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Baylor at Iowa State | +13.0L21–43 | 45.0 | L21–43 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Baylor at Texas Tech | +4.5W59–35 | 56.0 | W59–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Baylor vs Oklahoma State | -7.0W38–28 | 64.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Baylor vs TCU | -2.5W37–34 | 64.0 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Baylor at West Virginia | -2.0W49–35 | 60.0 | W49–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Baylor at Houston | -7.0W20–10 | 51.0 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Baylor vs Kansas | +2.5W45–17 | 62.5 | W45–17 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Baylor vs LSU | -3.0L31–44 | 62.5 | L31–44 | O | N |
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian | -34.5W52–51 | 58.5 | W52–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas Tech at Washington State | -2.5L16–37 | 64.5 | L16–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Texas Tech vs North Texas | -10.5W66–21 | 70.5 | W66–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Texas Tech vs Arizona State | -4.5W30–22 | 58.5 | W30–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Texas Tech vs Cincinnati | -3.0W44–41 | 60.0 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Texas Tech at Arizona | +6.0W28–22 | 64.0 | W28–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Texas Tech vs Baylor | -4.5L35–59 | 56.0 | L35–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Texas Tech at TCU | +5.0L34–35 | 66.0 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Texas Tech at Iowa State | +13.5W23–22 | 55.0 | W23–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Texas Tech vs Colorado | +5.0L27–41 | 62.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | -5.0W56–48 | 63.5 | W56–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Texas Tech vs West Virginia | -2.5W52–15 | 61.5 | W52–15 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Texas Tech vs Arkansas | -3.5L26–39 | 52.5 | L26–39 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Tech Edge
Texas Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Tech Edge
Texas Tech +15.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
23–25 (48%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Powledge
Yr 2
#1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Zach Kittley
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tim DeRuyter
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

