Baylor at Texas Tech Week 8 College Football Matchup Baylor at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Baylor✈ 310 miSame TZ
Away
59 35
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Baylor
34
Texas Tech
29
P&R Line Baylor -4.5
P&R Total O/U 62.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -4.5 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -4.5
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Baylor · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Texas Tech Coming off BYE 🛋 Baylor Coming off BYE
Baylor 2024 Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.5W45–353.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/7Baylor at Utah+14.5L12–2352.5L12–23UY
Sat 9/14Baylor vs Air Force-17.5W31–340.5W31–3UY
Sat 9/21Baylor at Colorado+2.5L31–3852.5L31–38ON
Sat 9/28Baylor vs BYU-3.0L28–3447.0L28–34ON
Sat 10/5Baylor at Iowa State+13.0L21–4345.0L21–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Baylor at Texas Tech+4.5W59–3556.0W59–35OY
Sat 10/26Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.0W38–2864.5W38–28OY
Sat 11/2Baylor vs TCU-2.5W37–3464.0W37–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Baylor at West Virginia-2.0W49–3560.0W49–35OY
Sat 11/23Baylor at Houston-7.0W20–1051.0W20–10UY
Sat 11/30Baylor vs Kansas+2.5W45–1762.5W45–17UY
Tue 12/31Baylor vs LSU-3.0L31–4462.5L31–44ON
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Baylor PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Baylor #29
+0.481
Texas Tech #33
+0.422
Baylor Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Baylor #21
+0.704
Texas Tech #44
+0.569
Baylor Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Baylor #83
0.151
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Baylor Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Baylor #30
+8.246
Texas Tech #7
+8.578
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Baylor #23
+0.904
Texas Tech #50
+0.836
Baylor Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Baylor #17
68.5
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Baylor Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Baylor
3.6
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Baylor
16.6
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Baylor
13.1
Texas Tech
1.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Baylor #45
0.80
Texas Tech #9
1.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #61
1.60
Texas Tech #63
1.00
Texas Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Baylor #1
44.5
Texas Tech #1
60.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #48
42.2
Texas Tech #46
25.9
Texas Tech +15.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
23–25 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Jake Spavital Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Powledge Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself