Texas Tech at TCU Week 9 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at TCU Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, TX · Turf · 45,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 267 miSame TZ
34 35
Final
TCU
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
27
TCU -5
TCU
38
P&R Line TCU -11
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 86 High
Vegas TCU -5.0 · O/U 66.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
TCU -5.0
O/U 66.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → TCU · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
TCU 2024 Schedule
TCU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30TCU at Stanford-8.0W34–2758.5W34–27ON
Sat 9/7TCU vs Long Island University-45.5W45–056.5W45–0UN
Sat 9/14TCU vs UCF-1.5L34–3561.5L34–35ON
Sat 9/21TCU at SMU-1.0L42–6658.5L42–66ON
Sat 9/28TCU vs Kansas+1.5W38–2758.5W38–27OY
Fri 10/4TCU vs Houston-16.5L19–3052.0L19–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19TCU at Utah+3.0W13–752.0W13–7UY
Sat 10/26TCU vs Texas Tech-5.0W35–3466.0W35–34ON
Sat 11/2TCU at Baylor+2.5L34–3764.0L34–37ON
Sat 11/9TCU vs Oklahoma State-10.5W38–1368.5W38–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23TCU vs Arizona-10.5W49–2860.0W49–28OY
Sat 11/30TCU at Cincinnati-2.5W20–1358.5W20–13UY
Sat 12/28TCU vs Louisiana-9.5W34–361.0W34–3UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
TCU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ TCU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #33
+0.432
TCU #18
+0.526
TCU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #44
+0.488
TCU #5
+0.798
TCU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TCU #102
0.142
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
TCU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #7
+8.547
TCU #20
+8.427
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
+0.857
TCU #20
+0.907
TCU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #28
69.0
TCU #13
68.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
TCU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
TCU
6.6
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
TCU
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.2
TCU
11.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #9
1.50
TCU #18
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #63
1.33
TCU #30
0.67
Texas Tech +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
52.9
TCU #1
46.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #46
33.1
TCU #25
37.4
Texas Tech +6.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
27.0 — 53.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
TCU won by 1
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
18–9 (67%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Kendal Briles Yr 2 #1
DC Andy Avalos Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself