Arizona State at Oklahoma State Week 10 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Oklahoma State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium Stillwater, OK · Turf · 60,218 cap
Arizona State✈ 863 mi+2 hr TZ
42 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
35
Oklahoma State
24
P&R Line Arizona State -11
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Arizona State -5 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Oklahoma State, while Game Control favors Arizona State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oklahoma State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -5
O/U 57.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Arizona State Coming off BYE
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.5W44–2054.0W44–20OY
Sat 9/7Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.5W39–3160.5W39–31ON
Sat 9/14Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/21Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.0L19–2253.5L19–22UN
Sat 9/28Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.0L20–4258.0L20–42ON
Sat 10/5Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.5L14–3865.0L14–38UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Oklahoma State at BYU+8.5L35–3853.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/26Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.0L28–3864.5L28–38ON
Sat 11/2Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.0L21–4257.0L21–42ON
Sat 11/9Oklahoma State at TCU+10.5L13–3868.5L13–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.0L48–5663.5L48–56ON
Fri 11/29Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.5L0–5266.5L0–52UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #13
+0.650
Oklahoma State #52
+0.335
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #14
+0.761
Oklahoma State #30
+0.556
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #75
0.156
Oklahoma State #89
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #48
+8.069
Oklahoma State #42
+7.861
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #8
+0.954
Oklahoma State #63
+0.856
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #78
71.4
Oklahoma State #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Oklahoma State
4.8
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Oklahoma State
19.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Oklahoma State
14.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Oklahoma State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #47
0.86
Oklahoma State #94
1.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #19
0.86
Oklahoma State #101
1.43
Oklahoma State +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
43.4
Oklahoma State #1
32.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #28
37.5
Oklahoma State #124
47.2
Arizona State +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%) · Yr 20 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Bryan Nardo Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself