Texas Tech at Washington State Week 2 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Washington State Matchup - Week 2
Sun, Sep 8 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Martin Stadium Pullman, WA · Turf · 32,248 cap
Texas Tech✈ 1,210 mi-2 hr TZ
16 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
34
Washington State
33
P&R Line Texas Tech -1
P&R Total O/U 67
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -2.5 · O/U 64.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Washington State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -2.5
O/U 64.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Washington State 2nd straight Home Game
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Washington State vs Portland State-26.5W70–3057.5W70–30OY
Sat 9/7Washington State vs Texas Tech+2.5W37–1664.5W37–16UY
Sat 9/14Washington State vs Washington+4.0W24–1956.0W24–19UY
Fri 9/20Washington State vs San José State-13.0W54–5255.5W54–52ON
Sat 9/28Washington State at Boise State+6.5L24–4566.0L24–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Washington State at Fresno State-3.5W25–1760.5W25–17UY
Sat 10/19Washington State vs Hawai'i-18.5W42–1055.5W42–10UY
Sat 10/26Washington State at San Diego State-17.0W29–2656.5W29–26UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Washington State vs Utah State-20.5W49–2869.0W49–28OY
Sat 11/16Washington State at New Mexico-10.5L35–3872.5L35–38ON
Sat 11/23Washington State at Oregon State-11.0L38–4157.0L38–41ON
Sat 11/30Washington State vs Wyoming-18.5L14–1555.5L14–15UN
Fri 12/27Washington State vs Syracuse+19.0L35–5258.5L35–52OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Washington State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #33
+0.469
Washington State #19
+0.518
Washington State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #44
+0.555
Washington State #20
+0.704
Washington State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #123
0.125
Washington State #88
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Washington State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #7
+8.902
Washington State #23
+8.398
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
+0.902
Washington State #15
+0.917
Washington State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Washington State #49
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Washington State
-5.4
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Washington State
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Washington State
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #9
0.00
Washington State #83
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #63
0.00
Washington State #88
0.00
Texas Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Washington State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
78.8
Washington State #1
79.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #46
9.6
Washington State #18
7.5
Washington State +1.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Washington State
79.3 — 8.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington State won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Washington State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Ben Arbuckle Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Schmedding Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself