Sun, Sep 8 2024
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,232 cap
Mississippi State✈ 1,331 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Mississippi State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -6.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky | -26.5W56–7 | 61.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Mississippi State at Arizona State | +6.5L23–30 | 57.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Mississippi State vs Toledo | -10.5L17–41 | 56.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Mississippi State vs Florida | +6.5L28–45 | 58.0 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Mississippi State at Texas | +37.0L13–35 | 58.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Mississippi State at Georgia | +34.0L31–41 | 53.5 | L31–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | +21.0L24–34 | 55.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | +7.5L25–58 | 55.0 | L25–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Mississippi State vs Massachusetts | -19.5W45–20 | 59.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Mississippi State at Tennessee | +26.5L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Mississippi State vs Missouri | +9.5L20–39 | 58.0 | L20–39 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +26.5L14–26 | 63.5 | L14–26 | U | Y |
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Arizona State vs Wyoming | -6.5W48–7 | 47.0 | W48–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Arizona State vs Mississippi State | -6.5W30–23 | 57.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/12 | Arizona State at Texas State | +2.5W31–28 | 58.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Arizona State at Texas Tech | +4.5L22–30 | 58.5 | L22–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arizona State vs Kansas | -2.5W35–31 | 50.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/11 | Arizona State vs Utah | +6.0W27–19 | 46.5 | W27–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Arizona State at Cincinnati | +5.5L14–24 | 51.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Arizona State at Oklahoma State | -5.0W42–21 | 57.0 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Arizona State vs UCF | -2.5W35–31 | 55.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Arizona State at Kansas State | +7.5W24–14 | 51.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arizona State vs BYU | -3.5W28–23 | 49.0 | W28–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Arizona State at Arizona | -7.5W49–7 | 52.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Arizona State vs Iowa State | +1.5W45–19 | 51.5 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Arizona State vs Texas | +13.5L31–39 | 52.5 | L31–39 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +1.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona State
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona State
87.5 — 7.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arizona State won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Barnes
Yr 1
#1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Marcus Arroyo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓