Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, TX
·
Turf
·
60,862 cap
North Texas✈ 273 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
North Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -10.5
O/U 70.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2024 Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | North Texas at South Alabama | +6.0W52–38 | 61.5 | W52–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin | -21.5W35–20 | 72.5 | W35–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | North Texas at Texas Tech | +10.5L21–66 | 70.5 | L21–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | North Texas vs Wyoming | -7.0W44–17 | 55.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | North Texas vs Tulsa | -7.0W52–20 | 65.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | North Texas at Florida Atlantic | -5.5W41–37 | 58.5 | W41–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | North Texas at Memphis | +10.5L44–52 | 67.5 | L44–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | North Texas vs Tulane | +7.5L37–45 | 70.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | North Texas vs Army | +6.5L3–14 | 68.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/15 | North Texas at UTSA | +1.0L27–48 | 73.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | North Texas vs East Carolina | -2.5L28–40 | 73.5 | L28–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | North Texas at Temple | -10.5W24–17 | 63.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Fri 1/3 | North Texas vs Texas State | +15.5L28–30 | 67.5 | L28–30 | U | Y |
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian | -34.5W52–51 | 58.5 | W52–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas Tech at Washington State | -2.5L16–37 | 64.5 | L16–37 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Texas Tech vs North Texas | -10.5W66–21 | 70.5 | W66–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Texas Tech vs Arizona State | -4.5W30–22 | 58.5 | W30–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Texas Tech vs Cincinnati | -3.0W44–41 | 60.0 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Texas Tech at Arizona | +6.0W28–22 | 64.0 | W28–22 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Texas Tech vs Baylor | -4.5L35–59 | 56.0 | L35–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Texas Tech at TCU | +5.0L34–35 | 66.0 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Texas Tech at Iowa State | +13.5W23–22 | 55.0 | W23–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Texas Tech vs Colorado | +5.0L27–41 | 62.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | -5.0W56–48 | 63.5 | W56–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Texas Tech vs West Virginia | -2.5W52–15 | 61.5 | W52–15 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Texas Tech vs Arkansas | -3.5L26–39 | 52.5 | L26–39 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +18.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
78.8 — 7.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 45
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Texas with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Caponi
Yr 2
#1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Zach Kittley
Yr 3
#1
DC
Tim DeRuyter
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

