North Texas at Texas Tech Week 3 College Football Matchup North Texas at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
North Texas✈ 273 miSame TZ
21 66
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
29
TTU -10.5
Texas Tech
42
P&R Line Texas Tech -12.5
P&R Total O/U 70.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -10.5 · O/U 70.5
Matchup Prediction
North Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
North Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -10.5
O/U 70.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2024 Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31North Texas at South Alabama+6.0W52–3861.5W52–38OY
Sat 9/7North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin-21.5W35–2072.5W35–20UN
Sat 9/14North Texas at Texas Tech+10.5L21–6670.5L21–66ON
Sat 9/21North Texas vs Wyoming-7.0W44–1755.0W44–17OY
Sat 9/28North Texas vs Tulsa-7.0W52–2065.5W52–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12North Texas at Florida Atlantic-5.5W41–3758.5W41–37ON
Sat 10/19North Texas at Memphis+10.5L44–5267.5L44–52OY
Sat 10/26North Texas vs Tulane+7.5L37–4570.5L37–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9North Texas vs Army+6.5L3–1468.0L3–14UN
Fri 11/15North Texas at UTSA+1.0L27–4873.0L27–48ON
Sat 11/23North Texas vs East Carolina-2.5L28–4073.5L28–40UN
Sat 11/30North Texas at Temple-10.5W24–1763.5W24–17UN
Fri 1/3North Texas vs Texas State+15.5L28–3067.5L28–30UY
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas #45
+0.461
Texas Tech #33
+0.465
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #64
+0.595
Texas Tech #44
+0.601
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas #133
0.113
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #69
+7.880
Texas Tech #7
+8.760
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas #70
+0.861
Texas Tech #50
+0.885
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas #87
71.6
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-3.3
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
North Texas
13.9
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.2
Texas Tech
1.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #85
1.00
Texas Tech #9
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #90
2.00
Texas Tech #63
1.00
North Texas +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
61.7
Texas Tech #1
43.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #89
17.5
Texas Tech #46
44.4
North Texas +18.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
78.8 — 7.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 45
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Texas with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jordan Davis Yr 2 #1
DC Matt Caponi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself