Texas Tech at Arizona Week 6 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Arizona Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 6 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
Texas Tech✈ 534 mi-2 hr TZ
28 22
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
34
Arizona
28
P&R Line Texas Tech -6
P&R Total O/U 62.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arizona -6 · O/U 64.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona -6
O/U 64.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Arizona 2024 Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona vs New Mexico-28.0W61–3960.0W61–39ON
Sat 9/7Arizona vs Northern Arizona-43.0W22–1065.0W22–10UN
Fri 9/13Arizona at Kansas State+7.0L7–3158.0L7–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Arizona at Utah+7.5W23–1047.0W23–10UY
Sat 10/5Arizona vs Texas Tech-6.0L22–2864.0L22–28UN
Sat 10/12Arizona at BYU+3.0L19–4148.5L19–41ON
Sat 10/19Arizona vs Colorado-2.5L7–3457.5L7–34UN
Sat 10/26Arizona vs West Virginia-5.5L26–3151.5L26–31ON
Sat 11/2Arizona at UCF+6.5L12–5655.0L12–56ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Arizona vs Houston-1.0W27–346.5W27–3UY
Sat 11/23Arizona at TCU+10.5L28–4960.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/30Arizona vs Arizona State+7.5L7–4952.5L7–49ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech #33
+0.483
Arizona #93
+0.379
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #44
+0.621
Arizona #88
+0.553
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #123
0.125
Arizona #99
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech #7
+9.279
Arizona #101
+7.500
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #50
+0.888
Arizona #117
+0.821
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Arizona #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Arizona
9.6
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Arizona
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Arizona
11.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #9
1.75
Arizona #58
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #63
0.50
Arizona #114
1.00
Texas Tech +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
59.8
Arizona #1
49.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #46
28.0
Arizona #121
29.8
Texas Tech +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona
3 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
15.4 — 61.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dino Babers Yr 1 #1
DC Duane Akina Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself