West Virginia at Texas Tech Week 14 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
West Virginia✈ 1,281 mi-1 hr TZ
15 52
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
30
TTU -2.5
Texas Tech
35
P&R Line Texas Tech -4.5
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Texas Tech -2.5 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -2.5
O/U 61.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
West Virginia 2024 Schedule
West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31West Virginia vs Penn State+7.5L12–3448.0L12–34UN
Sat 9/7West Virginia vs UAlbany-38.5W49–1453.5W49–14ON
Sat 9/14West Virginia at Pittsburgh-2.5L34–3860.5L34–38ON
Sat 9/21West Virginia vs Kansas-1.5W32–2856.0W32–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5West Virginia at Oklahoma State+2.5W38–1465.0W38–14UY
Sat 10/12West Virginia vs Iowa State+3.0L16–2854.0L16–28UN
Sat 10/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+2.5L18–4556.5L18–45ON
Sat 10/26West Virginia at Arizona+5.5W31–2651.5W31–26OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9West Virginia at Cincinnati+5.5W31–2454.5W31–24OY
Sat 11/16West Virginia vs Baylor+2.0L35–4960.0L35–49ON
Sat 11/23West Virginia vs UCF+3.0W31–2160.0W31–21UY
Sat 11/30West Virginia at Texas Tech+2.5L15–5261.5L15–52ON
Tue 12/17West Virginia vs Memphis+5.0L37–4260.0L37–42OY
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia #63
+0.428
Texas Tech #33
+0.544
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #65
+0.595
Texas Tech #44
+0.839
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia #119
0.130
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia #16
+8.565
Texas Tech #7
+9.468
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia #69
+0.861
Texas Tech #50
+0.890
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia #87
71.6
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.2
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.6
Texas Tech
1.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #56
1.00
Texas Tech #9
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #105
1.50
Texas Tech #63
1.20
Texas Tech +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
47.5
Texas Tech #1
54.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #85
35.8
Texas Tech #46
30.4
Texas Tech +7.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
80.8 — 6.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 37
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
31–29 (52%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chad Scott Yr 2 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself