Texas at Arizona State Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas at Arizona State Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Jan 1 2025 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA · Turf · 71,000 cap
Texas✈ 816 mi+1 hr TZ Arizona State✈ 1,580 mi+3 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
39 31
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas
32
Arizona State
20
P&R Line Texas -12
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas -13.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas -13.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Arizona State 2nd straight Home Game
Texas 2024 Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas vs Colorado State-35.5W52–059.0W52–0UY
Sat 9/7Texas at Michigan-7.0W31–1242.0W31–12OY
Sat 9/14Texas vs UTSA-36.5W56–756.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/21Texas vs UL Monroe-43.5W51–354.5W51–3UY
Sat 9/28Texas vs Mississippi State-37.0W35–1358.5W35–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Texas vs Oklahoma-16.5W34–348.5W34–3UY
Sat 10/19Texas vs Georgia-4.0L15–3057.0L15–30UN
Sat 10/26Texas at Vanderbilt-17.0W27–2450.5W27–24ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Texas vs Florida-24.5W49–1748.5W49–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas at Arkansas-13.0W20–1057.5W20–10UN
Sat 11/23Texas vs Kentucky-18.5W31–1447.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/30Texas at Texas A&M-4.5W17–749.5W17–7UY
Sat 12/7Texas vs Georgia-2.5L19–2250.5L19–22UN
Sat 12/21Texas vs Clemson-13.5W38–2449.5W38–24OY
Wed 1/1Texas vs Arizona State-13.5W39–3152.5W39–31ON
Fri 1/10Texas vs Ohio State+6.5L14–2851.5L14–28UN
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas #39
+0.359
Arizona State #13
+0.306
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas #34
+0.548
Arizona State #14
+0.425
Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas #4
0.212
Arizona State #75
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas #54
+7.674
Arizona State #48
+6.713
Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas #27
+0.887
Arizona State #8
+0.879
Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas #19
68.6
Arizona State #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas
27.2
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
Texas
29.5
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas
2.3
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas #15
2.07
Arizona State #47
1.15
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas #13
0.50
Arizona State #19
0.85
Texas +0.92
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas #1
71.5
Arizona State #1
58.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas #3
15.0
Arizona State #28
26.1
Texas +13.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas
10.8 — 70.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas won by 8
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
25–14 (64%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 3 #1
DC Pete Kwiatkowski Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself