Arizona State at Arizona Week 14 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Arizona Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
Arizona State✈ 100 miSame TZ
49 7
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
34
Arizona
19
P&R Line Arizona State -15.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Arizona State -7.5 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arizona, while Game Control favors Arizona State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Arizona wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Arizona State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -7.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Arizona 2024 Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona vs New Mexico-28.0W61–3960.0W61–39ON
Sat 9/7Arizona vs Northern Arizona-43.0W22–1065.0W22–10UN
Fri 9/13Arizona at Kansas State+7.0L7–3158.0L7–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Arizona at Utah+7.5W23–1047.0W23–10UY
Sat 10/5Arizona vs Texas Tech-6.0L22–2864.0L22–28UN
Sat 10/12Arizona at BYU+3.0L19–4148.5L19–41ON
Sat 10/19Arizona vs Colorado-2.5L7–3457.5L7–34UN
Sat 10/26Arizona vs West Virginia-5.5L26–3151.5L26–31ON
Sat 11/2Arizona at UCF+6.5L12–5655.0L12–56ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Arizona vs Houston-1.0W27–346.5W27–3UY
Sat 11/23Arizona at TCU+10.5L28–4960.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/30Arizona vs Arizona State+7.5L7–4952.5L7–49ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #13
+0.550
Arizona #93
+0.268
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #14
+0.698
Arizona #88
+0.435
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #75
0.156
Arizona #99
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #48
+8.694
Arizona #101
+7.176
Arizona State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #8
+0.944
Arizona #117
+0.809
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #78
71.4
Arizona #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.3
Arizona
9.6
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.3
Arizona
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
13.9
Arizona
11.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #47
0.82
Arizona #58
1.30
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #19
0.91
Arizona #114
1.70
Arizona +0.48
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
53.6
Arizona #1
31.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #28
29.7
Arizona #121
53.2
Arizona State +22.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dino Babers Yr 1 #1
DC Duane Akina Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself