Arizona State at Kansas State Week 12 College Football Matchup Arizona State at Kansas State Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 17 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Arizona State✈ 940 mi+2 hr TZ
24 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arizona State
25
ASU +7.5
Kansas State
28
P&R Line Kansas State -3
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Kansas State -7.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7.5
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arizona State #13
+0.420
Kansas State #17
+0.419
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #14
+0.628
Kansas State #36
+0.547
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arizona State #75
0.156
Kansas State #50
0.172
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arizona State #48
+7.680
Kansas State #53
+7.720
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arizona State #8
+0.858
Kansas State #55
+0.864
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arizona State #78
71.4
Kansas State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arizona State
7.2
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Arizona State
21.2
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arizona State
14.0
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arizona State #47
0.89
Kansas State #21
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #19
0.89
Kansas State #27
0.63
Kansas State +0.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arizona State #1
46.1
Kansas State #1
54.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arizona State #28
34.7
Kansas State #49
25.9
Kansas State +8.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona State
5.5 — 91.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arizona State won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself