Kansas at Arizona State Week 6 College Football Matchup Kansas at Arizona State Matchup - Week 6
Sun, Oct 6 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, AZ · Turf · 56,232 cap
Kansas✈ 1,004 mi-2 hr TZ
Away
31 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
22
ASU -2.5
Arizona State
31
P&R Line Arizona State -9.5
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arizona State -2.5 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Arizona State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arizona State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Arizona State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -2.5
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Arizona State Coming off BYE
Kansas 2024 Schedule
Kansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Kansas vs Lindenwood-48.5W48–362.5W48–3UN
Sat 9/7Kansas at Illinois-4.5L17–2358.5L17–23UN
Fri 9/13Kansas vs UNLV-7.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 9/21Kansas at West Virginia+1.5L28–3256.0L28–32ON
Sat 9/28Kansas vs TCU-1.5L27–3858.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/5Kansas at Arizona State+2.5L31–3550.0L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Kansas vs Houston-4.5W42–1445.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/26Kansas at Kansas State+10.0L27–2956.5L27–29UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Kansas vs Iowa State+2.5W45–3650.5W45–36OY
Sat 11/16Kansas at BYU+3.0W17–1355.5W17–13UY
Sat 11/23Kansas vs Colorado+2.5W37–2159.0W37–21UY
Sat 11/30Kansas at Baylor-2.5L17–4562.5L17–45UN
Arizona State 2024 Schedule
Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona State vs Wyoming-6.5W48–747.0W48–7OY
Sat 9/7Arizona State vs Mississippi State-6.5W30–2357.5W30–23UY
Thu 9/12Arizona State at Texas State+2.5W31–2858.5W31–28OY
Sat 9/21Arizona State at Texas Tech+4.5L22–3058.5L22–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arizona State vs Kansas-2.5W35–3150.0W35–31OY
Fri 10/11Arizona State vs Utah+6.0W27–1946.5W27–19UY
Sat 10/19Arizona State at Cincinnati+5.5L14–2451.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Arizona State at Oklahoma State-5.0W42–2157.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/9Arizona State vs UCF-2.5W35–3155.5W35–31OY
Sat 11/16Arizona State at Kansas State+7.5W24–1451.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/23Arizona State vs BYU-3.5W28–2349.0W28–23OY
Sat 11/30Arizona State at Arizona-7.5W49–752.5W49–7OY
Sat 12/7Arizona State vs Iowa State+1.5W45–1951.5W45–19OY
Wed 1/1Arizona State vs Texas+13.5L31–3952.5L31–39OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arizona State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas #9
+0.441
Arizona State #13
+0.546
Arizona State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #17
+0.595
Arizona State #14
+0.687
Arizona State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas #54
0.171
Arizona State #75
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas #11
+8.326
Arizona State #48
+7.971
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas #16
+0.905
Arizona State #8
+0.943
Arizona State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas #132
74.7
Arizona State #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Arizona State
7.3
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Arizona State
21.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Arizona State
13.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arizona State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #64
0.00
Arizona State #47
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #20
0.75
Arizona State #19
0.75
Arizona State +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arizona State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
47.4
Arizona State #1
55.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #13
25.8
Arizona State #28
31.7
Arizona State +7.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
17–21 (45%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Jeff Grimes Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Arroyo Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Ward Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself