Colorado at Texas Tech Week 11 College Football Matchup Colorado at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Colorado✈ 481 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
41 27
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Colorado
34
Texas Tech
29
P&R Line Colorado -5
P&R Total O/U 63.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Colorado -5.0 · O/U 62.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Colorado -5.0
O/U 62.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Colorado · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Colorado Coming off BYE
Colorado 2024 Schedule
Colorado's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Colorado vs North Dakota State-9.0W31–2659.0W31–26UN
Sat 9/7Colorado at Nebraska+6.5L10–2855.0L10–28UN
Sat 9/14Colorado at Colorado State-7.5W28–958.5W28–9UY
Sat 9/21Colorado vs Baylor-2.5W38–3152.5W38–31OY
Sat 9/28Colorado at UCF+12.5W48–2160.5W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Colorado vs Kansas State+3.5L28–3154.5L28–31OY
Sat 10/19Colorado at Arizona+2.5W34–757.5W34–7UY
Sat 10/26Colorado vs Cincinnati-6.0W34–2357.0W34–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Colorado at Texas Tech-5.0W41–2762.0W41–27OY
Sat 11/16Colorado vs Utah-13.5W49–2443.5W49–24OY
Sat 11/23Colorado vs Kansas-2.5L21–3759.0L21–37UN
Fri 11/29Colorado vs Oklahoma State-14.5W52–066.5W52–0UY
Sat 12/28Colorado vs BYU-3.0L14–3655.5L14–36UN
Texas Tech 2024 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian-34.5W52–5158.5W52–51ON
Sat 9/7Texas Tech at Washington State-2.5L16–3764.5L16–37UN
Sat 9/14Texas Tech vs North Texas-10.5W66–2170.5W66–21OY
Sat 9/21Texas Tech vs Arizona State-4.5W30–2258.5W30–22UY
Sat 9/28Texas Tech vs Cincinnati-3.0W44–4160.0W44–41ON
Sat 10/5Texas Tech at Arizona+6.0W28–2264.0W28–22UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas Tech vs Baylor-4.5L35–5956.0L35–59ON
Sat 10/26Texas Tech at TCU+5.0L34–3566.0L34–35OY
Sat 11/2Texas Tech at Iowa State+13.5W23–2255.0W23–22UY
Sat 11/9Texas Tech vs Colorado+5.0L27–4162.0L27–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Texas Tech at Oklahoma State-5.0W56–4863.5W56–48OY
Sat 11/30Texas Tech vs West Virginia-2.5W52–1561.5W52–15OY
Fri 12/27Texas Tech vs Arkansas-3.5L26–3952.5L26–39ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Colorado PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Colorado
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Colorado
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Colorado
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Colorado #35
+0.475
Texas Tech #33
+0.339
Colorado Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Colorado #32
+0.671
Texas Tech #44
+0.439
Colorado Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Colorado #13
0.198
Texas Tech #123
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Colorado Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Colorado #28
+8.305
Texas Tech #7
+8.023
Colorado Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Colorado #48
+0.881
Texas Tech #50
+0.826
Colorado Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Colorado #19
68.6
Texas Tech #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Colorado Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Colorado
0.1
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Colorado
15.7
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Colorado
15.6
Texas Tech
1.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Colorado #36
1.00
Texas Tech #9
1.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Colorado #50
0.29
Texas Tech #63
1.13
Texas Tech +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Colorado #1
48.9
Texas Tech #1
54.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Colorado #73
34.5
Texas Tech #46
30.8
Texas Tech +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
3 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Colorado
40.7 — 46.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Colorado won by 14
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 1 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
15–11 (58%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 3 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself